Alwaght- After three decades of dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh region, promising signs of stability in the region are emerging, and in the first bilateral statement after Azerbaijan recapture of mountainous Karabakh region in September, the two sides without mediation of any party have reached an important symbolic humanitarian and diplomatic agreement.
Baku and Yerevan agreed to take “certain measures” to strengthen mutual trust and peace after three decades of conflict over the control of the Karabakh region. According to a joint statement issued on Thursday after talks between the governments of the two countries, the two sides reaffirmed their intention to normalize their relations. They also agreed that Baku would release 32 Armenian prisoners and Yerevan would release two Azerbaijani prisoners. They stressed in their statement that they will try to sign a comprehensive peace treaty, based on mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity.
This agreement was reached while the officials of the two countries held several meetings in Russia and the US and in Belgium in recent months, but no concrete results were obtained, but in the end, the two neighbors reached preliminary agreements without foreign mediation. This agreement, which is a prelude to the signing of a peace deal between the two countries, has been welcomed by the international community.
Spokeswoman to the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova said that Moscow welcomes the agreement on the release of soldiers, adding that “this deal will help strengthen mutual trust and provide new opportunities for improvement of relations between the former enemies regarding the trilateral agreements signed by the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia in 2020 and 2022.
Also, Turkish Foreign Ministry said Ankara supports the continuation of dialogue for taking trust-building measures between the two sides.
“We hope for a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the quickest possible time, which would be one of the most important peace events in South Caucasus,” Turkish statement said.
President of European Council Charles Michel, for his part, lauded the new agreement as a “big step.”
Hopes for a peace deal
Although the peace talks between Yerevan and Baku have not made much progress in the past months, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have expressed hope that a comprehensive peace agreement between the two countries will be signed by the end of the year. In this regard, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, in an interview with Euronews on Saturday once again said that Baku has proposed to sign a peace agreement and start process of demarcation of borders. According to him, after the full recapture of the Karabakh region by his forces, Armenia is more willing to reach an agreement with its eastern neighbor, because according to him, with the elimination of the separatists from power in Karabakh at the hand of the Azerbaijani forces, the barrier ahead of further Armenian courage at the negotiating table is removed. He added that the Armenians of Karabakh can return to this region and there is no obstacle ahead of them.
On the other hand, Armen Grigoryan, the secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, announced that Yerevan is ready to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan before the end of this year or immediately after it. He also described the joint statement with Baku as unprecedented.
“This action is the product of direct negotiations between the two countries and no mediator was present in these negotiations,” he further said.
Despite saying it is ready to sign the peace agreement, Armenia ties it to some conditions the Azerbaijani side should agree to. Grigoryan commented on these conditions, saying: “If Azerbaijan finally accepts the three principles that Armenia is looking for and insists on, the text of this agreement will be 70-percent ready. These principles include the joint recognition of territorial integrity, the recognition of the 1991 Almaty Declaration on the political principle of border delimitation, and the opening of regional communications.”
Undoubtedly, the joint statement and trust-building measures between Baku and Armenia are historically important and are meant to prepare the ground for true peace. Leaders of the two countries have come to the conclusion that more Karabakh disputes produce nothing but costs and tolls and coexistence is a far better option.
De-escalation after retaking Artsakh
Tensions in Caucasus reached their climactic point since Azerbaijan’s lightening operation for recapture of mountainous Karabakh in September. After this attack, Azerbaijan solidified its sovereignty over this region and raised its flag in the city of Khankandi (Stepanakert), the center of Karabagh. Although following this military action by Baku, tens of thousands of Armenians were displaced and migrated to Armenia after three decades in the region, Azerbaijan’s fever for territorial expansionism and escalation of tensions with its western neighbor relaxed.
Although over the past three months, sporadic clashes were reported between the border guards of two countries and there have been casualties, the confrontation had been less severe than the period that preceded retaking of Karabakh. Aside from this, Aliyev, who earlier was insisting on the controversial Zangezor Corridor, walked back from his plan to a large extent after taking Artsakh and now concentrates on an alternative corridor, and according to agreements made between Tehran and Baku, the project has made considerable progress.
“The work in this field has started and is being carried out by the relevant ministers. Bridges are being built on the Aras River in Zangilan and Aghband to access Iranian soil, and from there, communication roads and railways will be built to Nakhchivan,” said Hikmat Hajiyev, the foreign policy adviser to Aliyev.
Additionally, one of the reasons that pushed Azerbaijan to de-escalation with Armenia is the stances of the regional backers of Baku. Turkey, as the main supporter of Azerbaijan, has quitted the policy of escalation in recent months and sought to normalize relations with Armenia, and to achieve this goal, it has inevitably forsaken its previous policies. Also, Turkey has thrown its support for the corridor passing through Iran, and this is a constructive measure contributing to defuse tensions in Caucasus.
Furthermore, Israel that over the past years sought to inflame war in Caucasus through backing Azerbaijan’s agenda these days is tied down in Gaza war and internal crises and has no room for addressing regional matters. In addition, the regional countries blocked Israeli rampancy in the region, cutting off its hand for taking advantage of regional tensions.
Therefore, with the absence of foreign support, Baku settled to its main goal of retaking Karabakh and found it not in its interests to press ahead with tensions. Shifting its approach, Azerbaijan chose a path of friendship and interaction with its western neighbor, and if nothing unexpected happens, a comprehensive deal is not out of reach given the two sides expressing their preparation for peace. And should peace is obtained, Caucasus will meet relative calm and stability after three decades of strain.
