Alwaght- These days, Suleimaniya province as the bastion of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) of Iraqi Kurdish region is witnessing tense political times. Perhaps when on December 2019 during the fourth congress of the PUK the leadership of the party was given to both Bafel Talabani, the son of the PUK founder Jalal Talabani, and his cousin Lahur Sheikh Jangi Talabani, no political observer expected such a high level of tensions between the cousins.
However, from the outset there was evidence of a power struggle between the two PUK leaders for full power control, and there was speculation that in the not-too-distant future there would be differences between the co-leaders and the possibility of polarization among members, but it has never been foreseeable that armed confrontation between them will take place with heavy weapons. This happened on July 8, however, and several weeks after, not only have the tensions not winded down but also divisions and reckoning have increased considerably.
But what are the roots of the recent tensions and infighting? Where will the party's fate head in the future?
PUK, from foundation to sinking in deep leadership crisis
The PUK was founded on June 1, 1975, in Damascus, under the leadership of Jalal Talabani, with the participation of Nawshirwan Mustafa, Fouad Masoum, Ali Asgari, Abdul Razzaq Fili, and Adel Murad. The party went through a tumultuous history after its establishment and took part in various uprisings against the central government of Iraq during the Ba'athist rule. In 1991, along with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), it played a key role in establishing an autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq's north under the auspices of international coalition.
The party has been at loggerheads with the KDP, led by Massoud Barzani, since the mid-1990s over financial resources and how to govern the autonomous government, and a period of civil war broke out between the two mainstream groups in Kurdistan. After the end of the civil war, the autonomous region was officially divided into two administrative districts, one under the rule of PUK in Sulaimaniyah and the other under KDP in Erbil and Dohuk provinces. The PUK-administered part was dubbed "green zone" and the KDP-administered one was dubbed "yellow zone."
After fall of the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, Talabani and Barzani took serious steps to unite Kurdistan under a federal region. Managing to get the federal region approved by Iraqi constitution in 2005, the two leaders signed a strategic agreement. This ushered in a new governance period for the Kurds, with Talabani, elected president of new Iraqi government, representing the Kurds in Baghdad.
But in 2009 the party faced one of its biggest defections, during which Nawshirwan Mustafa, a longtime friend and second-in-command in the PUK, formed a new party named Gorran Movement, attracting part of the PUK's public and support base. The split relatively weakened the PUK within the region and in Baghdad, and Jalal Talabani's subsequent stroke in late 2012 made it increasingly difficult to maintain the party's unity. During Talabani's illness, the rift between the party's leaders and old guard widened to warning levels, resulting in fragmentation.
As a result of these rifts, on the one hand, the political leaders of the party independently created military and political wings for themselves, and on the other hand, Barham Ahmad Salih, who was expected to fill Talabani's place, in 2017 founded the "Coalition for Democracy and Justice" to cause the second biggest defection within the PUK. Kurdistan independence referendum was organized by Masoud Barzani, assisted by part of the PUK leadership body, on September 25, 2017. Collapse of the referendum project and loss of 51 percent of the Kurdish territories in Kirkuk and other disputed regions to the central government forces augmented the political confusion inside the party. In the meantime, appeared a new power-thirsty, anti-Barzani leader: Lahur Sheikh Jangi Talabani.
Amid the turbulent political situation within the PUK, Lahur and the family of his uncle Jalal began to patch up things to rebuild the party. Finally, on December 21, 2019, the fourth party congress was held. In the assembly, the old guard was transferred to the Supreme Political Council led by Kosrat Rasul Ali, a veteran Peshmerga commander and former prime minister of the Kurdish region. Bafel and Lahur were elected co-leaders of the party.
Now and less than two years from the congress, enemeity unbelievably grew between the cousins. On July 8, Bafel and a number of the party's commandos, loyal to deputy president of the Kurdish region Jaffar Sheikh Mustafa, arrested the head of the PUK's intelligence service and the commander of the PUK's special counterterrorism service. For the intelligence service, Bafel replaced Mohammad Tahsin Talabani with Salman Amin and for the counterterrorism force replaced Lahur's brother Pulad with Wahab Halabjay.
Continuing his coup-like actions, Bafel ordered closure of media outlets affiliated with Lahur, including IPLUS TV channel that was on its test broadcasting. The PUK's official media removed co-leader title for Bafel and called him secretary-general of the party. Also, with a decree from Bafel that had support from the members of the party's political office, Lahur was dismissed from all of his responsibilities, "until change of the party's charter." Lahur was also removed from his post as leader of the Kurdish coalition for Iraqi parliamentary elections, succeeded by Qubad Talabani, Bafel's brother. Additionally, Bafel is planned to, soon, be named secretary-general of the party.
Cousins' power struggle over Taliban's political legacy
There are two key theories that explain the recent developments within the PUK. One talks about intra-party struggle and second the foreign plot to remove Lahur from power. The secret power struggle between Lahur and Bafel over the past two years supports the first theory.
The July events started when the PUK media reported emergence of a smuggling, hostage taking, and extortion band led by Lahur and his brothers in Suleimaniya. Reports also accused Lahur of plotting to "eliminate" Bafel and other PUK leaders by poison. PUK's official news website charged Lahur with "harboring the economic corrupts." Simultaneously, all Bafel-affiliated news outlets accused Lahur of "abuse of power against interests of the PUK, people, and families of the martyrs." They said documents for all charges were available.
The PUK's official television published a video of a "victim" of Lahur brother's kidnapping. In the video, a man identified as Bilind Ali Abdulrahman who works in the oil industry, accused Pulad Sheikh Jangi of “kidnapping” him in 2015 in an attempt to force him and his family to hand over money and property to Lahur's other brother, Ako Sheikh Jangi. Following the media pressures, reports talked about Bafel ordering Lahur to leave the Kurdish region or face arrest and trial. Defending himself, Lahur rejected the order. On Tuesday, reports said a Sulaimaniyah court issued arrest warrant to Lahur, accusing him of kidnapping, torture, and extortion.
Home and regional plot to eliminate Lahur?
Despite the power struggle theory, Lahur's supporters argue the basis to these events is an internal and foreign plot to eliminate him from power. They suggest the Turkish government and the KDP are behind the conspiracy, and they intend to weaken the PUK. Responding to these claims, the KDP's spokesman Mahmoud Mohammad in a statement held that the struggle was internal and "should be settled internally."
PUK future under the shadow of the division
There are four scenarios for the PUK future as the division keeps hitting its body.
The first possible scenario is the seizure of power by the families of Jalal Talabani and Ibrahim Ahmad. This means that given the advocacy of the majority of the party's leadership members for Bafel Talabani and given the strong support of Shahnaz Ibrahim Ahmad, the sister of Jalal Talabani's wife Hero Ibrahim Ahmad, for Lahur's departure from the political power structure, power will be seized by Jalal Talabani's sons who are descendents of Jalal's comrade Ibrahim Ahmad.
The second scenario is reconciliation of the two. Given the course of developments, such a reconciliation,however, will never reinstall Lahur to power. At best, he can remain a member of the PUK leadership body, provided that the court would not convict him.
The third scenario is Lahur's defection and foundation of a new party, having in mind that he has considerable social base and legitimacy. If realized, this theory brings forth possibility of further tensions and struggle.
And the fourth scenario: a massive change— removal of Barham Salih— may come to the Iraqi president post which is a share of the PUK. After rejoining the PUK in 2018, Salih made his way to Baghdad-based post with direct support and roadmap from Lahur. But now with opposition of Shahnaz Ibrahim Ahmad to Salih, the party can mull new figures for president.
