Alwaght- While the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council’s dire situation has not improved even after the recent reconciliation between Qatar and a Saudi-led quartet, and (P) GCC’s chief is busy with setting up post-détente policies, he has decided to make Iraq a visit destination.
Although Nayef Falah al-Hajraf's negotiating agenda with the Iraqi officials includes strengthening ties with Baghdad and promising the bloc’s support for the country in the fight against terrorism, the Arab diplomat has goals going well beyond the bilateral negotiations.
Mending dignity in Iraq
Al-Hajraf’s visit to Iraq came at a time when Baghdad was struggling to counter the re-emergence of the ISIS terrorist group and has had fears of rejuvenated terrorist actions in recent weeks. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a voluntary force founded in 2014 in response to ISIS seizure of vast parts of Iraq, and Iraqi army have carried out several large-scale operations since last year to cleanse the remaining ISIS sleeper cells which arrange attacks and divisive agenda in the central and Sunni provinces.
Now, along with the public demand for the withdrawal of the American occupying forces from the country, the Takfiri elements have once again ramped up their actions and movements to paint Iraq re-immersing in insecurity and its armed forces unable to secure the country.
Meanwhile, when it comes to blaming a foreign party behind arming and equipping and bankrolling the terrorists in the country, the fingers of blame of the Iraqi people are pointed to Saudi Arabia. The Saudi goal is to maintain the crisis in the realm of the Axis of the Resistance in order to pave the ground for the American and NATO forces’ stay in Iraq and the region. Naturally, with US insistence on a continued presence in Iraq and possible confrontation of the Resistance camp with Washington, the trip could be aimed at influencing the Biden government's regional policy, especially on Iran, as the towering actor in the Axis.
In the middle of this, the secretary-general of the Cooperation Council is on a mission to change the negative atmosphere formed against the destructive Saudi meddling in Iraq by travelling to Baghdad and voicing support to the Iraqi government and people in their anti-terror battle. According to a statement issued by the Iraqi government, al-Hajraf stressed in talks with Iraqi officials the six-member bloc’s support for Baghdad in establishing its security, stability and sovereignty. He added that the body appreciate Iraq's successful experience in obliterating terrorism.
Countering Iran influence
Another al-Hajraf mission is an effort to reduce Iran's soft influence in Iraq through establishment of Baghdad’s economic links to the Cooperation Council members, especially in power exports field.
He said: "The power grid connection case has reached an advanced stage, and the member states are serious about continuing bilateral meetings to advance it further.”
Iraq and mainly Saudi power connection was planned by the Americans as the former President Donald Trump was pressing ahead with his anti-Iranian “maximum pressure” campaign, an effort demoralizingly failed to bring Tehran to its knees.
Saudi Arabia has promised cheaper power supplies to Iraq to encourage the Iraqi officials to engage in close trade ties with Riyadh. As part of the Vision 2030 plan, the Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman aspires to make the oil-rich kingdom the largest producer and exporter of renewable energy in the region, and therefore Iraq is targeted as a prospective power export destination.
In April 2019, the Iraqi oil minister and deputy prime minister for energy affairs announced signing an MoU between Iraq and Saudi Arabia to increase power supply and increase its home production. Annually, Iran exports more than 1,000 megawatts of electricity to Iraq and is the safest option for the country in the current situation. At best, Saudi Arabia cannot fully replace Iranian electricity exports to Iraq in the next three years, because according to experts, Saudi Arabia operates on a 230V supply voltage and 60Hz but Iran and Iraq operate on a 220V supply voltage and 50Hz.
Iran, on the other hand, had not stopped power exports due to its close political ties with Baghdad, even in the worst of Iraq's economic crisis and its inability to pay its debts. This is while Iraqi observers warn that power can be instrumentalized by the Saudis for pressures against Baghdad if the kingdom gains monopoly in the field.
Sowing divisions in Baghdad
Another important issue and purpose of the (P) GCC’s chief visit to Iraq could be the recent drone strike on Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory. Contrary to expectations, the Saudis did not react after an Iraqi group claimed responsibility for the attack in response to “the Saudi support for terrorism in Iraq.” So, it is very likely that al-Hajraf also carried Riyadh's message to the Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi's government on the case.
This is aimed at creating gaps and rifts between the government and the political and military groups affiliated with the resistance in Iraq. Saudi Arabia and the US see the PMF's presence in Iraq's military, political, and social structure as a major obstacle to their destabilizing plots.
Dialogue with Tehran
Another possible, and hidden, aspect to the visit that could be on the agenda of negotiations between Iraqi officials and al-Hajraf is to examine the atmosphere for possible Iran-Cooperation Council— Saudi Arabia and the UAE to be precise— negotiations.
Both under the former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi and the current PM, Iraq announced its readiness to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But the Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud recently in an interview with the Saudi-run Al-Arabiya news network took a negative stance on Tehran's openness to talks, reiterating unfounded allegations against Iran. However, the stalemate in the Yemeni war and mounting foreign pressure to end the devastating war, which caused the largest humanitarian crisis in the region, with Joe Biden’s presidency necessitate for the Saudi rulers walking the dialogue course with Iran. In the meantime, Iraq is an ideal option and capable of facilitating a Saudi diplomatic and condition-assessing process.
