Alwaght- Over the past few days, in an important and rare development, a crossing between areas held by the Turkish-backed terrorist militias in northwestern Syria and the areas held by the central Syrian government was reopened after years.
Abu Zandain crossing near the city of Al-Bab in Aleppo province was opened in a surprise move last week.
Five years ago, this crossing witnessed the passage of goods and passengers, and even several prisoner exchange deals were made using this route between the government and armed rebels with the support of countries backing the Astana peace process. But after outbreak of coronavirus in the country in 2019, this crossing was also closed.
This action, at a time when Turkey and Syria, after years of hostility and enmity, have opened negotiations to restore political relations, is considered as the first real test of the parties' willingness to de-escalate tensions and advance bilateral relations.
This comes as over the past few days, joint Russian-Turkish patrol in northern regions of Syria was resumed after a year-long stop, giving out signs of arrival of an important development in the negotiation process and the medications for an agreement.
This development took place after the first time on August 2, the deputy director of the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria announced that it will establish a new military base in the Ain al-Arab region with the aim of "monitoring the mechanism of cessation of hostilities between the parties."
After that, Al-Watan newspaper reported, quoting some field sources, that the establishment of a joint Syrian-Russian military base in Ain al-Arab at this tense time is aimed at "reassuring Erdogan's government" and preventing hostile actions from Ain al-Arab against Turkish soil.
Turkey, for its part, welcomed this action, and the ministry of defense of this country considered it a step towards weakening the presence of the "terrorist organization in the region, referring to the Kurdish-majority militant group known as the Syrian Democratic Forces and backed by the US.
The terrorist groups living in the occupied areas in Idlib and its surroundings, who consider the reopening of Abul-Zandain crossing as part of the de-escalation process between Turkey and Damascus and oppose it, a few days after the reopening of the crossing set up "sit-ins tents" and closed down the gate. They reportedly refuse to remove their tents after the crossing stopped working.
When was Abu Zandain crossing established?
Following the military operation against the militants of the ISIS terrorist group in the eastern outskirts of Aleppo in 2017, the Syrian army expanded its control over large tracts of territory from the eastern suburbs of the province from south of Al-Bab to the suburbs of Tadef town.
In February of the same year, Ankara-backed forces in northern Syria took control center of Al-Bab and part of its southern and western suburbs.
So, Al-Bab was separated in southern and northern parts, one controlled by the government and the other by the Turkish-backed militias.
In this way, the city of Al-Bab was divided into two parts, the southern and the northern, the former under the control of the Syrian army and the northern part under the control of groups supported by Ankara.
Sinusoidal process of negotiations
While all the mentioned measures somehow indicate a willingness by the two sides to de-escalate and settle the problems, the course of negotiations in recent months has not been unchallenged and has taken a sinusoidal model.
In recent weeks, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeatedly spoke about his readiness for a bilateral meeting with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and last month he talked about the possibility of resuming relations with Damascus and making the ties as good as before the crisis.
On the other hand, al-Assad also said in press statements on Erdogan’s initiatives said he is positive about any initiative, "but this does not mean that we will proceed without references and legal framework for success. Because if we don't succeed, the relationship will deteriorate."
The issue of the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria is considered as one of the main obstacles on the way of an agreement, where Damascus considers acceptance of withdrawal by Turkey as Ankara's commitment to the principle of respecting the territorial integrity of Syria and a prerequisite for any direct meeting with al-Assad and reaching an initial agreement. But Turkey does not accept such prioritization and considers it a part of the negotiation process.
Later in July, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in comments to Sky News said his country's efforts to normalize relations with Syria are based on ensuring border security, fighting terrorism, and the safe returning of Syrian refugees to their country.
In his comments, Fidan stressed on cleansing Syria of terrorism, especially in the PKK-held Arab-majority regions, adding: "There are oil facilities that this organization is holding. This means that there is a terrorist organization that is usurping the resources of the people of Syria."
After these remarks, some voices damaging to the talks complicated the situation.
While on Turkish media there were whispers about success of Baghdad talks to facilitate Erdogan-Assad meeting, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler in controversial stances talked about three Ankara conditions for pullout of Syria, the most important of which were writing new constitution and holding free elections.
"Ankara cannot discuss coordinating the withdrawal (of its forces) from Syria until after a new constitution is agreed, elections are held, and borders are secured," Guler said.
After these remarks, the two countries did not witness any other real developments in the field of diplomacy that would indicate the progress of negotiations.
However, some analysts believe that Turkey's announced conditions are more of an attempt to gain the upper hand in the negotiations so that Syria withdraws its conditions of unconditional withdrawal of Turkish troops before the meeting between Erdogan and Assad.
International relations researcher Mahmoud Alloush believes: "Ankara is trying to send two messages to al-Assad. First, it is ready for normalization, which is beneficial for both sides, and second, Ankara's rush for normalization is not from a position of weakness."
However, what looks certain is that any de-escalation and rapprochement between the two entails mutual obligations and the ability and willingness of the two to fulfill their obligations and counter challenge that can emerge.
Abu Zandain, the tentative balloon
The reopening and then fast stop of the activities of Abu Zandain crossing showed that the fluctuating role of the opponent of resumption of Syria-Turkey relations, especially those from the terrorist groups based in western Syria that find their survival in continuation of the military, financial, and political support of Ankara, should not be underestimated.
While Turkey seeks to assure Damascus opponents and tell them that they will not be victimized in any deal with al-Assad government, in recent months these militias have protested stances of the Turkish government.
Ayman Al-Dsouki, a Syrian researcher at the Center for Strategic Civil Studies, told Alhurra news that the events that have occurred and are currently occurring "show the power of the war economy and the possibility of damage of any agreement that does not consider interests of those involved. What Abu Zandain crossing reopening showed is thar the way to Syrian people and stability is still way away and is still full of uncertainty and doubt."
However, Turkey, which is fed up with the presence of more than 3 million Syrian refugees and its economic costs and political and social consequences, sees no other way than embarking on cooperation with the Syrian government to return them home.
According to Turkish analyst Omar Ozkizilcik, Ankara hopes that the process of opening the internal borders in Syria will revive and strengthen the local economy of these areas by creating a labor market and job opportunities and reduce the costs of the Turkish government to help these areas.
During the closure of this crossing, the areas under the control of the Kurdish forces in Manbij city created a main corridor for the passage of people and goods to the areas controlled by the Syrian government through the Al-Tiha crossing in the southern suburbs of Manbij town which is one of the most important crossings inside Syria, from which the Democratic Union Party (PYD) make considerable revenues.
Also, Ankara seeks to gain a share of the market of the regions under the control of the central government by reopening the trade route with Syria and increasing the export of goods. In this context, a larger project can ensue; that is the promotion of the commercial corridor to the Persian Gulf countries through the territory of Syria and Iraq.
After late April visit of Erdogan to Iraq, ground for a security agreement with Baghdad was made and its final document was signed last week. Turkey wants Syrian government to be part of the bilateral anti-terror mechanism of Ankara and Baghdad against the PKK.
Turkish need for cooperation with Iran
The Turkish troubles to advance a contradictory plan for rapprochement with Damascus while maintaining its alliance with the Syria-based armed groups necessitate support of Iran and Russia as influential actors in Syrian developments.
Turkish ambassador to Iran Hicabi Kırlangıç in a recent interview with Iran's Tasnim news agency said: "Although the views of Iran and Turkey may be different on this (developments in Syria), we consider Iran's role important in order to continue the meetings with Syria. We need Iran's constructive behavior in the context of Syria."
"The relations Iran has with Syria can push Syria to peace with Turkey," the ambassador added.
These stances amid challenges like Abu Zandain opening and closure or the distance in Damascus-Ankara ties indicate Turkey's awareness of the need for Tehran's involvement as a mediator in rapprochement project to maximize chances of its success.
