Alwaght- Many analysts believe that with the start of the new year, national Syrian reconciliation process that started from mid-2021 would see acceleration. The Syrian national reconciliation is a process that was initiated with the entry to Al-Yaduda village in Daraa province of Syrian army and Russian military police forces on September 13 last year.
The process of national reconciliation was a direct result of the amnesty decree of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on May 2, 2021. About seven months ago, al-Assad issued a general amnesty order for those convicted in criminal cases. The amnesty covered offenses such as "damaging the authority of the government" or "escaping from the military" provided that the fugitives returned within the next three to six months. The decree also included crimes under the Terrorism Act, including "conspiracy to commit terrorist actions" and dealing with currencies other than the Syrian lira on the condition that compensation be paid to the central bank.
Although the decree did not include individuals affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood or the Israel regime, the continuation of the "peace without war" process has been widely welcomed by Syrian citizens. In addition to Daraa province, this trend continued in late November 2021 in Al-Mayadin town of Deir ez-Zor province in which the wanted civilians and deserter soldiers have to report themselves to the special stations where they can be granted amnesty and return to normal life.
According to the official Syrian news agency, in the latest phase of the national reconciliation, 22,000 people in Deir ez-Zor have joined the initiative and preparations are underway to similar process in Raqqa province. Syrian government reports suggest 22,000 people, mainly insurgents, from the region have joined in since last October and have abandoned the battle against the central government. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based opposition center monitoring developments in the war-hit county, stated in a statement that after the city of Al-Mayadin, we are now witnessing the implementation of this plan in the city of Raqqa, so that after completing the city of Deir ez-Zor, the remaining cities will participate in the national reconciliation.
Now the question is that what influences the reconciliation process would have on the future developments in the Arab country? The reconciliation is expected to have influence in four important areas:
Crisis settlement moves to diplomacy from battleground
The new phase of reconciliation comes as already Damascus, with a Russian mediation, managed to reach an agreement with Al-Yaduda tribal leaders according to which the armed groups should hand over their arms and control of the town to the government forces. The most important effect of this initiative is transition from military to peaceful solutions.
In fact, more than 10 years after the Syrian crisis, the country is moving faster day by day towards the end of the crisis. In the new situation, it seems that a new procedure is being implemented to restore the central government's control over different parts of Syria, which is based on diplomacy and soft power, unlike the previous procedure in which use of force was given priority.
This period should be called "peaceful advances for transition from crisis." It is a new phase since the 2011 developments with its defining feature being approval of the central Syrian government's legitimacy by the citizens.
Foiling foreign political pressures and foreign media blackening campaigns and increasing Damascus legitimacy
Another important effect of the reconciliation plan in Syria is the neutralization of political pressures and negative foreign media propaganda, and the improvement of Damascus legitimacy on the regional and international stage. The peace deals between Damascus and tribal leaders mean promotion of legitimacy of the central government and President al-Assad himself nationwide.
Although nearly 95 percent of citizens voted for al-Assad's presidency in the May election, surrendering of terrorist fighters without clashes and returning of citizens to their areas of residence is an event that has increased the public acceptance of the Syrian government. Undoubtedly, the expansion of the national reconciliation process in the new year could also deal the final blow to the Western-Arab-Israeli media propaganda, which have followed a blackening and delegitimizing path against Damascus over the past decade.
Facilitating refugees return
Another important result of the government peace deal with armed groups is the possibility of return of displaced Syrians. In the early months and years of the crisis in 2011, a significant number of Syrian citizens, influenced and encouraged by Western and Arab media, took arms against Damascus under various terrorist groups. The citizens primarily thought they could form a utopian state under the rule of the radical groups. But true color of these groups was soon showed to the Syrian people who, fully exhausted from the insecurity and terrorist actions of the armed groups, embraced the central government forces as their true emancipators.
Now, the Syrian people and the tribal leaders of the country believe in the Damascus-Tehran-Moscow axis as a reliable one which can negotiate directly with the opposition without the intervention of the Western-Arab-Turkish camp and reach lasting agreements. The peace deals can prepare the ground for return of the displaced Syrians residing inside or outside the county within upcoming months. The war displaced a large part of Syrian population who are ready to return home now that stability is substantially restored.
Dividing the Idlib-based terrorist groups
The reconciliation has another function: causing division and clashes among the terrorist groups based in Idlib. Idlib is currently the largest stronghold of Syrian and foreign terrorist factions. The central government prioritizes a peaceful settlement to Idlib case. Broader range of reconciliation can pave the way for bloodless peace.
The function of this initiative, though facing obstacles characterized by Turkey's intervention and pressure on people by armed groups, can encourage the Idlib-based armed militants to seek peace with government motivated by amnesty issued to their fellows in other areas and considering their incapability to confront the government forces. This can cause division between Syrian and foreign armed groups as the amnesty only covers the Syrians.
