Alwaght- As was expected, the announcement of the official date for withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan has intensified waves of violence and war in the Central Asian country. Precisely after September 11 was set the date of completion of the American pullout from Afghanistan, the Taliban considerably stepped up its attacks on the government centers. Zabihullah Mujahed, a spokesman to the insurgent group, said that within 40 days, the Taliban militants seized from the government 30 towns across the country.
Although the Afghan ministry of defense has completely denied the Taliban's claim, stating that the group has not captured a single city and that the government forces have retreated tactically in some areas, the reality is that Afghanistan is on the verge of a rejuvenated grand civil war, with the future set to grow even more deteriorated.
Taliban running unchallenged in seizing control of cities
Over the past few weeks, there has been a lot of field evidence and media reports of Taliban incursions in various parts of the country. Local outlets reported that in the past week, Qisar and Dowlat Abad in Faryab province, Shahrak and Tolak in Ghor province, Gizab and Chenarto in Oruzgan province, Jaghtu and Ab Band in Ghazni province, Sang Atash and Jund in Badghis province, Ashkmesh and Chah Ab in Takhar province, Arghanjkha in Badakhshan province, Patu in Daykundi province, Suzmeh Ghaleh in Sar-e Pol province, and Zare in Balkh province have fallen into the hands of the Taliban fighters.
Media also reported intensified Taliban attacks on Zabul in the south, Farah in the west, and Kunduz in northeast, leading to fall of four cities. The government offices were transferred to other places, reports added. The Taliban claimed that with the exit of the security forces, they seized control of Arghandab town in Kandahar.
New reports suggest that in Kunduz, bazar of Aliabad town fell to the militants, who reportedly killed 15 security forces. Local officials in Farah province in the west told media that Lash and Jovein and also Pushtrood towns have fallen to the militant fighters. Lash and Jovein town is 90 kilometers from western Farah and shares borders with Iran. Pushtrood is 20 kilometers from northeastern Farah.
Taliban pushing to have an upper hand in negotiations
A new round of Taliban attacks to take control of various cities in Afghanistan comes as talks between the government and the group continue in Doha, Qatar. In recent meetings, Taliban negotiation delegation spokesman Soheil Shaheen claimed to have discussed issues on the agenda and speeding up the peace process to "reach a mutual understanding."
But why are the Taliban pressing to seize control of more regions amid the ongoing talks? In other words, how is the peace and war paradox of the Taliban interpretable?
The group has two aims behind waging a comprehensive war against the government after the US exit schedule was released. First, any military progress of the Taliban means gaining an upper hand and wresting further concessions from Kabul government and second the group is already striving toward full dominance over the power in Kabul. They know that without military gains, such dominance is unthinkable. They are well aware that in a democratic framework like election they cannot win the power, and any approval of a coalition government only distances them from their ultimate goal of establishing am Islamic emirate like the one they administered before the US invasion.
Deepening insecurity and significant role of regional actors
In the present conditions, it is certain that the group intends to seize the 13 Pashtun-majority provinces before a peace deal is signed with the government. In fact, the Taliban believe that following the withdrawal of US forces, they can prepare their forces to attack and attempt to seize sensitive areas and centers for smoother power takeover. But this plan faces a major problem, namely the strong opposition from Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. These tribes, like the Taliban, are fully prepared to take up arms. In fact, if the Taliban wants to take the power using force, the ethnic groups, knowing that such a development will mean ignorance to the ethno-sectarian differences, will choose resistance and war. Actually, the northerners are as motivated and prepared to fight as the Taliban. This scenario can ignite new war in the country and take the violence and insecurity to new heights.
When it comes to the Taliban and the country’s political future, the role of the regional actors definitely needs to be taken into account. The two-decade presence of the US in Afghanistan as a trans-regional power has made it clear to all that peace and stability in this country do not pass through the role played by actors from beyond the region and that via role of the regional players that a peace outlook is foreseeable for Kabul and the Taliban.
It is highly important to know that presently the government cannot resist the Taliban offensives. Over the past two decades, although government forces have been fighting the Taliban on the ground, it has been NATO air cover that assisted the Taliban defeats. Considering the historical experiences of Afghanistan, especially the government of Mohammad Najibullah– whose government resisted only two years after the Soviet forces pulled out of Afghanistan—, we can see that at the end of the road Afghanistan witnessed ethical partition and fall of the government to the Taliban in the 1980s. The Pashtuns allied with the Taliban and the Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras formed the Northern Alliance. The shadow of war and split at present more than any other time covers Afghanistan, something President Ashraf Ghani and his power sharer Abdullah Abdullah are aware of.
Meanwhile, it is noteworthy that the Taliban do not make their decisions totally independently and the role of the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence is crucial. Odds are that Pakistan will force the group to the Doha negotiations if Washington pressures Islamabad. Also, regional actors like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China can leave deep influence on the peace equations. In this cloudy outlook, the only ray of hope is Afghanistan government acting with responsibility marked by cooperation with the regional parties to push the future equations towards a solution to the years-long crisis.
