Alwaght- While the northern provinces of Yemen under control of Ansarullah-led National Salvation Government (NSG) celebrate 10th anniversary of the September 21 revolution that toppled President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, new political moves are underway in the south by the Aden-based cabinet, and tracking the role of the foreign actors in these developments can lead us to the notion that they are planning to turn the tide in the internal Yemeni equations and even ignite a new crisis.
Last week, the UAE hosted an unprecedented meeting between the leaders of two important political and military groups in southern Yemen developments, during which Tariq Saleh, the leader of the so-called National Resistance Forces and the nephew of the slain dictator of Yemen Ali Abdullah Saleh met with Aidarous al-Zoubaidi, the head of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and vice president of Presidential Leadership Council (PLC).
According to the STC's official website, the two sides discussed cooperation and coordination to strength the efforts to counter Ansarullah and what they called "terrorist and radical forces."
However, many analysts consider the existence of many differences between these two UAE-aligned groups to be untrue, saying that the message of this meeting goes far beyond the media content. This message is intensification of the competition of southern actors on behalf of Saudi Arabia and the UAE and efforts to activate the Red Sea front against Ansarullah amid tense regional situation.
UAE seeking full control over the south with circumventing Saudi Arabia
It is no secret that over the past two decades in Yemen military developments, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have transformed from coalition and cooperation to competition, something that multiple times showed itself in the clashes and eruption of security crisis and dissolution of the cabinet, and the exile of the self-proclaimed cabinets of the south to Saudi Arabia.
So, as the meeting of the two important UAE-aligned groups without the participation of the official representative of the PLC was given publicity, immediately it was read as part of the broadening competition between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.
"The aims of this meeting may go beyond what has been announced as the coalition of the National Resistance Forces led by Tariq Saleh and the Transitional Council led by Aidarous al-Zoubaidi against the Houthis [Ansarullah]. Al-Zoubaidi and Saleh are essentially part of the Presidential Leadership Council against the Houthis [Ansarullah], so they do not need such bilateral coordination," said southern-based journalist Salah al-Saqladi.
Yasin Al-Tamimi, a Yemeni political analyst, believes that the head of the STC and the head of the National Resistance Forces represent the organizations that are formed by the UAE and are financially and militarily fed by the UAE, and the UAE determines the goals and political agenda and even defines the geographical boundaries of their forces in different areas of southern Yemen. So, Abu Dhabi has full control over the two groups, and none of them takes action without coordination with the UAE and putting the Emirati priorities first.
Since its involvement in the war waged by the Saudi-led Arab coalition against Yemen, the UAE set control of the key ports and islands as a strategic war goal and backed the southern separatism through forming the STC.
Even now this is the driving force for the policies of the UAE regarding developments in the south and it seems that gradual alignment of disturbing forces with the plans of the STC was the top agenda of the meeting, given the influence of Tariq in the northern regions and the weight of the National Resistance Forces in the eastern coast.
The two sides like their foreign backer are discontented with the current peace and ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and Ansarullah and feel marginalized. In Muscat talks and after them, no one of these groups played a role in Riyadh-Sana'a peace process and so they are seriously worried about their interests being sacrificed in the future.
Even the STC has no interest in committing and submitting to the Saudi-supported PLC and continues to cooperate with this council based on short-term interests and using it as a temporary tool to escape external pressures.
In recent months, the STC, in the path of expanding its power in the entire southern provinces and taking full military control of these areas in order to achieve the long-standing dream of forming an independent country in the south, has run into the barrier of the political will of the Saudis in the strategic province of Hadhramout, where the Saudis have established, organized, and equipped their own security forces under the title of National Shield Forces.
This Saudi move was aimed at cutting the Emirati influence and cracking down on the power of the STC. Now, the control of the oil and resource-rich Hadhramout province has become a decisive point determining the southern developments and the Saudi-Emirati competition for a deeper foothold in the south.
Recently, the deputy editor-in-chief of the Saudi Okaz newspaper in ironical comments directed at the STC said that "the issue of Hadhramout has been settled, which means you have no connection with Hadhramout. Hadhramout is under the control of the Saudis."
Additionally, the Saudis are also inciting the Hadhramouti tribes against the rule of the STC. According to media sources, including Balqis News, last week the coast of Hadhramout witnessed a meeting of the leaders of the famous tribes of Hadhram, during which these leaders wanted to take full security and military control of this province.
Therefore, the message of the UAE-sponsored meeting is not rebuilding of the alliances in the south, but the widening of the gaps inside the PLC and the Emirati-affiliated institutions.
Gaza war and distracting Ansarullah from Israel
But in addition to home factors, the foreign role in gathering together the anti-Ansarullah forces and encouraging them to rebuild their military alliance against Sana'a cannot take place separate from the current regional escalation amid Gaza and Yemen's influential role and its important geopolitical position in the regional developments.
The meeting came a day after US ambassador to Aden Steven Fagin had called on the southern forces aligned with the PLC to set aside their differences and unite their ranks to face what he called challenges. Even some local media circles have spoken about a proposal to form a joint operation room between the STC and the National Resistance Forces.
The call by the American ambassador for alliance against Ansarullah had earlier scandalously failed in foreign area where the US-led Guardian of Prosperity coalition with the ostensible mission of securing the international navigation in the Red Sea and with the real mission of protecting the Israeli ships against Ansarullah's pro-Gaza operations firstly received cold response from the Persian Gulf Arab states and secondly this coalition failed to make a difference and the US withdrew its aircraft carrier from the Red Sea after suffering a large-scale failure against Ansarullah's naval power after months of bombing of Yemeni infrastructure.
Therefore, while Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf Arab states, except for Bahrain, refused to join the naval coalition, Washington is striving to open a new front against Ansarullah and distract its focus from the Israeli regime in coordination with Abu Dhabi.
