Alwaght- The news of crash of helicopter carrying Iranian President Seyyed Ibrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and some other officials since the initial moments were followed with sensitivity by international media outlets. In the first day of announcement of martyrdom of the president, at least eight countries announced days of mourning. This was in addition to tens of countries that with their messages of condolences showed their sympathy to Iranian people.
Also, the UN Security Council started its meeting on Sunday with a minute of silence in honor of President Raisi. Secretary General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in his meeting with the representatives of the countries expressed his condolences to the people of Iran.
Meanwhile, experts and thinkers at various think tanks each brought in spotlight the incident. This report sheds light on some views and analyses by some think tanks about martyrdom of the Iranian president in the chopper crash.
A tragedy, not a crisis, for Iran
Karthick Ramakrishnan, political scientist and author in School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, believes about the developments after passing of President Raisi that the position of president in Iran is so important, but as a result of President Raisi’s death, Iran will not undergo a political shock of surprise political crisis.
According to this Indian expert, the death of the president can be considered a tragedy for Iran, but this tragedy will not spiral into a political crisis. He adds that the Iranian government had made a lot of efforts in the past years in order to deal with sanctions and pressure from the West, to pursue a resistance and self-sufficiency economy and to increase cooperation with other anti-Western countries such as Russia and China, and Raisi was prominently leading this path. This Indian university professor also adds that Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian made a successful team that succeeded in directing Iran's foreign policy towards a more powerful stance towards the West. In the viewpoint of Iran, Raisi-Amir-Abdollahian team was successfull in standing against the West.
In the end of his analysis, Ramakrishnan suggests that since the hierarchy of power in Iran is clear and intact, with the passing of President Raisi, no major change will happen to the way Iran deals with the International actors, both enemies and friends. According to this analyst, the loss of President Raisi does not cause a political crisis for Iran. Rather, it is a tragedy and Iran is in a good position to weather it.
No change to Iran's foreign policy
Amy Sood, a Hong Kong-based journalist, said: "On foreign policy, Raisi pushed hard in nuclear talks with world powers and expanded Iran’s ties with Russia, China and India through a “Look East” strategy. At the same time, this expert believes that after Ayatollah Raisi, there will not be major change in the main positions of Iran's foreign policy, and in regional and foreign policy, everything will probably remain the same as before. Addressing Raisi’s political record, Sood writes: "Most significantly, Iran was able to mend its ties with long-time regional foe Saudi Arabia in a March 2023 rapprochement deal mediated by China.
First direct Iranian attack on Israel under Raisi
Ellen Loanes, a journalist of American news website Vox, says that Raisi passed away while Iran is engaged in a deep proxy war with the Israeli regime. Currently, Iran's allies in Yemen are fighting the American forces in the Red Sea, and armed groups aligned with Iran are attacking American military facilities in Syria and Iraq.
This American expert also shed light on the escalation of tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv and writes that in April, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel in revenge for the assassination of an Iranian military official, and this was the first time that Iran launched such an attack from its own territory. According to Loanes, while before this conflict between Iran and Israel usually took place through groups affiliated with the Iran-led Axis of Resistance throughout West Asia, a missile attack from Iranian soil recorded the first direct military conflict between Iran and Israel to be under Raisi’s presidency.
Iran capable of holding elections
A Guardian article written by Patrick Wintour, the news paper's diplomatic editor-in-chief, sheds light on the election conditions of Iran after passing of the president. The article suggests that the sudden demise of President Raisi surprisingly brings the political governance in Iran face to face with an election to elect a new president. The author adds that recent experiences prove that Iran is capable of protecting security and holding elections and the vote will be held soon.
Iran's strategic path will not change
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy intelligence officer of the US and the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program, says that the death of president of Iran has shocked the region and the whole world, but it is highly unlikely this incident triggers a change in Iran's strategic path in home and foreign policy. Iran's main challenge after the death of Ayatollah Raisi, according to Panikoff, will be holding elections, and Iranian officials are already planning to accomplish this mission.
Iran's foreign policy strategy will not change
Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs, writes in an article about the upcoming developments in Iran, saying the incident of passing of the president is not expected to considerably strategic courses of the Tehran. Raisi government's policies, especially in the field of Iran's nuclear case, will continue in the next government as well. Therefore, Iran's politics will not be affected by his death.
Foreign condolence messages show thriving Iranian foreign policy
Bne IntelliNews, a European analysis website, in a report about the developments after death of Iranian president says that despite the sudden demise of Raisi in the helicopter crash, the deep-rooted balance of power shows that there will be no immediate economic or foreign policy change in Iran.
Impacted by the Western sanctions, Iran's economy continues to struggle against them, as the tensions with Israel and the West will keep unfolding. However, international reactions to the death of the Iranian president indicate significant warming of Iran's relations with many countries, including the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and old rivals such as Saudi Arabia. During Raisi's presidency, Iran witnessed the resumption of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the launch of joint regional projects such as a dam with Azerbaijan. Also, from the geopolitical point of view, Iran's position is expected to remain stable after the death of Ayatollah Raisi. Hopes for reviving nuclear talks are halted, and Iran's support for allied forces such as Yemen's Ansarullah will continue.
Also, a new president after Raisi could seek a faster pace for improvement of relations with Persian Gulf Arab states that after Raisi’s passing all expressed their condolences to Iran. In their messages to Tehran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE referred to Iran as a "brother country", signaling a positive change in dynamics of the region. Therefore, improvement of relations between Iran and Persian Gulf Arab countries will go on post-Raisi.
