Alwaght- Iraq is scheduled to hold its parliamentary election on May 12. According to the nation’s Independent Higher Election Commission (IHEC), in the initial steps, 240 political parties and factions registered that were narrowed down under 88 coalitions, which are set to contest for 238 seats of the Council of Representatives. What gains attention in the election process, in the meantime, is the inter-Kurdish competition in Kurdistan region, aside from the Arab factions’ rivalry.
With regard to their medial role in the post-Saddam Iraq’s political process, the Kurdish parties’ alliance with each of the key Arab coalitions like Nasr Coalition, Badr Coalition, and State of Law Coalition can decisively determine how the future Iraqi government’s formation will look like.
Therefore, the Kurdish parliamentary election’s results are of significance in Iraq’s political competition arena. In the past, they used to usually win over 60 seats under the Kurdistan Coalition. But in the upcoming election, it will be a hard job for them to repeat their past successes mainly because of losing political weight following their loss of Kirkuk and other regions in Salahaddin, Nineveh, and Diyala provinces to the central government in the wake of the independence referendum. They are expected to experience a sharp drop in their traditional votes in these regions of influence.
Here is a detained picture of the election:
Eligible voters, Coalitions, and Seats
According to the Kurdistan’s Electoral Commission, 3,144,730 people are eligible to vote in the parliamentary election. According to Mazen Abdulqader, the KEC’s head, 25 political sides inside the Kurdish region will race against each other: 19 factions, 4 coalitions, and 2 independent candidates. The 23 parties together have 503 candidates– 357 of them male and 146 female candidates.
The Kurdish region, located in the north of the country, has three cities under its administration. Dahuk will given 12, Sulaymaniyah 18, and Erbil the capital city 16 seats in the future parliament. Each city has granted a seat for the Christians.
What are the leading political parties that will fight for 46 seats in the three cities?
Kurdistan Democratic Party
Led by Masoud Barzani, the former president of Kurdish Regional Government, the Kurdistan Democratic Party rose as the strongest Kurdish political party on the Iraqi scene over the past decade, particularly because foundation of Gorran (Change) Movement in 2009 impaired the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. In the past election, the party won 25 seats to become one of the largest sides to enter the parliament. It is expected to remain the biggest representative of the Kurds in the May election. According to the results of a poll conducted by Iraq’s Al Rafedain Dialogue Institute, the KDP is expected to win some 24 seats in the election. The party’s influence centers in order are Dohuk, Erbil, Nineveh, and Sulaymaniyah.
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has been for decades a traditional rival of the KDP. Together with the KDP, the PUK has been the player of the biggest role on the stage of the Kurdish region’s developments. Both Gorran Movement in 2009 and the Coalition for Democracy and Justice in 2017 separated from the body of the PUK, making it lose tremendous strength and so unable to challenge the KDP. In the election, the party has to deal with segmentation represented by its offshoots New Generation and Coalition for Democracy and Justice. According to the Al Rafedain Dialogue Institute’s poll, the PUK will gain some 15 seats in the race. The party could even secure fewer than this number as it is domestically struck by administration and leadership struggles.
Gorran Movement
Gorran, or Movement for Change, won 6 seats in 2014 election. The party has allied with the Kurdistan Islamic Group and the Coalition for Democracy and Justice to form Homeland Coalition. Led by Omar Sayed Ali, Gorran, according to Alrafedian Dialogue Institute’s poll, will likely secure some 18 seats in the Council of Representatives.
Coalition for Democracy and Justice
The coalition was founded by Barham Salih after he broke up with the PUK in 2017. An educated and prominent politician, Salih is highly popular among the Kurdistan region’s young generation, the popularity he took advantage of by forming his own party. According to the poll, the party will benefit from 18 seats it will possibly win together with its allies under Homeland Coalition.
Kurdistan Islamic Union
Led by Salahaddine Bahaaedin, the Kurdistan Islamic Union is another Kurdish party to be in the competition. Al Rafedain Dialogue Institute’s poll predicts some 4 seats for the party in the election.
Kurdistan Islamic Group
The Kurdistan Islamic Group, headed by Ali Bapir, represents the traditional religious political layer of Kurdistan region. As it was mentioned above, the small party has chosen to race for seats within the Motherland Coalition.
New Generation Movement
The New Generation Movement is a new party founded in 2017 by Shaswar Abdulwahid, the owner of Nalia Media group. The group has a very narrow chance to be a big gainer. At best, it should vie for a single seat.
Arab coalitions’ unusual presence in Kurdish regions
Another matter of importance in the upcoming election is the active presence of the Arab coalitions in the Kurdish-administered regions. According to the reports, some 56 Kurdish figures have announced candidacy under three major Arab alliances in the Kurdish region. They will fight for seats on the behalf of the Arab coalitions in the three cities of Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Dahuk. 25 of them represent Alnasr List, led by the serving Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi, 17 represent National Wisdom (Al-Hikmah) List, led by Sayyed Ammar al-Hakim, and 9 represent National Iraqi Coalition List.
