Alwaght- After several rounds of fruitless negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the past months, the United Nations Security Council is undertaking the case in hope of a solution to this three-decade dispute of the two neighbours.
The UNSC meeting on Karabakh was held yesterday as 120,000 Armenians in Karabakh mountainous region have been trapped for 8 months as their only lifeline as been blocked and the UN warnings for unblocking them have gone nowhere so far, and just contrary to Baku and Yerevan officials’ claims that they are close to peace, there are no clear prospects of a de-escalation.
To discuss aspects of tensions in Karabakh and peace outlook, Alwaght talked to Caucasus affairs expert Burhan Heshmati.
Alwaght: Azerbaijan closed down Lachin Corridor since December last year and disallows aid delivery to the Armenians of Karabakh. What do you think is its goal behind this blockade?
Heshmati: By blocking this corridor, Azerbaijan is seeking to force Armenians of mountainous Karabakh to abandon the region to full control of Baku, or quit their separatist thoughts and stay part of Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijani leaders have resorted to inhuman ways to advance their agenda inspired by the Turkish and Israeli policies.
Another goal of Baku is to put pressure on the Armenian government to agree to the construction of the Zangezor Corridor and to take over the southern part of Armenia and grant it to the West and the Israeli regime and Turkey in order to have a dedicated route to access the Caucasus, the Caspian Basin, Central Asia and China and finally realize the dream a Turkic World.
Despite its push, Baku does seem to succeed in concluding this project because Armenia will not recede part of its territory to Azerbaijan either under Zangezor project or under other transportation routes. Armenians of Karabakh have already shown that they will not give in to such sieges. Lachin closure is not a demand of Azerbaijani people, rather, thus policy is dictated by the Zionist and pan-Turkist centers and Baku is only the implementer of this policy, and indeed this inhuman blockade will not realize Azerbaijan's goals.
Alwaght: Please tell us about the conditions of Lachin residents. How are they
now?
Heshmati: About 120,000 Armenians live in mountainous Karabagh, which is connected to Armenia by the Lachin corridor, and it is in a dire situation in terms of livelihood. On the other hand, there is a media blackout in this region, and because the world powers lean to Azerbaijan due to their security and political interests, they do not allow news coverage of the developments in Karabakh.
Armenia itself is weak in terms of policy and media, and even the Armenia lobby with big influence in the world has failed to make the voice of mountainous Karabakh heard. The rare reports from this region suggest that about 2,000 pregnant women are in need of urgent medical help that is already cut off, making the situation unpleasant. Having in mind that the Armenians of Karabakh have been facing an economic blockade, they have managed to adapt to it, but this does not justify the indifference of the world community especially the Islamic Republic [of Iran] to the critical situation of the residents of this region.
In the last three decades, when there were tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran has always tried to manage the issues of the Caucasus by mediating between the two countries and has helped de-escalate tensions based on the principle of justice. In the first Karabakh war, when the Armenians occupied Karabakh, if it were not for the efforts of the Islamic Republic, a large number of Azerbaijani people would have been killed, but Iran prevented it, and now Tehran is expected to prevent massacre of Armenians in Karabakh, because the Caucasus is part of Iran's civilizational domain and the people of both countries expect the Islamic Republic to act again and end this crisis. Therefore, with its prudent policy, Iran should take the initiative and support the Armenians at this stage and provide a solution to this crisis.
Alwaght: The UNSC held an emergency meeting on Karabakh situation. Do you think the international community can press Baku to unblock Lachin? Will Azerbaijan back down?
Heshmati: I do not think that the United Nations Security Council can settle the crisis because it has neither the necessary seriousness to defuse the tensions nor the permanent members of the security council will allow it to. As we saw at the peak of the second Karabakh war in 2020, the Security Council wanted to intervene to end the conflict, but it even could not reach the stage of a statement release. Due to its interests in Azerbaijan, Britain prevented an anti-Azerbaijani resolution, and this time, too, it does not seem to be able to take a humanitarian and fair initiative in this issue, and London will again obstruct it because this country controls Azerbaijani energy resources and does not allow implementation of justice and puts its interests over humanitarian principles, and other Security Council’s members are not expected to present a fair solution.
Alwaght: In his latest stances on Zangezor Corridor, Azerbaijani president talked about cooperation with Iran and said he respects the historical borders, raising hopes about a de-escalation. Will Baku walk back from its ambitions about Zangezor?
Heshmati: The government of Azerbaijan has taken many of these fraudulent and false positions in the conversation with the Iranian officials, and in the last three years, especially when President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and his government felt that they had become the top power in the Caucasus, they started the second Karabakh war. They also made ambitious claims about Azeri-inhabited areas of Iran. Even now, regarding Zangezor, Aliyev outwardly says that he respects the historical borders, but at the same time, the media and academic centers of Azerbaijan are making territorial claims against the countries of the region, and especially regarding Armenia, they have made many contradictory statements. The government of Azerbaijan is managed by the Israeli regime and Turkey, and therefore Aliyev’s statements are not the criteria for Baku's actions and cannot be trusted.
Alwaght: What effects will the Russian inability to pressure Azerbaijan, reopen Lachin and rebuild trust with Armenia peace have on Moscow's regional position given its title as a guarantor of the peace agreements? Will Russian weakness of role in Caucasus allow for influence gain of the West? What are the Western goals in this region?
Heshmati: Unfortunately, Russia does not have a constructive approach to the Karabakh issue, and it has proven in the past that whenever Moscow's interests required, at some point it trampled the Azeris under the feet of the Armenians and at other point victimized the Armenians to Azerbaijan's will, and this domination by the Russians has always existed. But since the beginning of the Russian war in Ukraine, this country has performed poorly in the Caucasus dispute, and this has provided a good opportunity for the West to boost its influence in this region.
The EU and US foist their demands on Baku and Yerevan governments and capitalize on the Russian weakness, and the recent EU meeting with Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels served this agenda for Europe to dispatch its observers to Armenian borders, and Aliyev agreed to this demand. Although the media and Baku authorities claim that they agreed to a two-month presence of European observers, they actually confirm the long-term presence of Westerners. Therefore, both Aliyev and Pashinyan move in line with Western policies, and these agreements open the door for more Western influence in the Caucasus, which not only does not solve the problem, but also complicates it.
The competition between Russia and the West causes them to exploit the Caucasus like Ukraine. And now there are no prospects for Ukraine’s victory and liberation of lands it lost to Russia, but the West continues the war in order to deal a blow to Russia and wants to repeat this scenario also in Karabakh and use Azerbaijan and Armenia against the interests of Russia and the Islamic Republic.
Alwaght: How do you see the prospects of peace in Karabakh?
Heshmati: As long as Karabakh competitions and Azerbaijan excesses continue and Baku continues to take orders from the Turkish and Israeli thinking rooms, and given the stances of Armenian government that prefer Western interests over interests of Armenian of Karabakh, I do not think that Baku and Yerevan politicians can find a fair solution to end the tensions. The powerful countries that exert influence in this case do not think of making a peace proposal to defuse the tensions. So, there is no clear outlook for end of the dispute.
