Alwaght- As six-month Yemen ceasefire ended on Sunday night without an agreement on its extension, clashes re-erupted immediately. Reports said that Taiz and Hodeidah are the flash points of rejuvenated clashes. Further reports suggest that the clashes are heavier in Taiz and various light and heavy weapons are used. Clashes also broke out in several villages south of Hodeidah port city between the Yemeni armed forces and the resigned government's loyalists. Before the ceasefire, these two provinces were the main scene of conflicts between Yemeni forces and Saudi and Emirati mercenaries.
The new round of clashes comes as Saudi Arabia reneged on its promises in the truce and during the past six months violated the agreement with hundreds of scattered attacks on Yemeni regions.
Ansarullah leaders had repeatedly warned against Saudi adventures and violations of the ceasefire agreements and warned the UN that if the aggression coalition continues its crimes and does not fulfill its commitments, they will not extend the ceasefire. Despite these warnings, Riyadh rulers appeared ignorant and Ansarullah turned down a request for a third extension.
Even the UN, which made a bid only at the last moment to extend the ceasefire, did not listen to Ansarullah's warnings, and this disregard for the interests of the Yemenis and unilateral support for the interests of the Saudi regime finished the ceasefire.
According to the UN-brokered agreement, Sana'a airport was supposed to be reopened to send patients abroad for treatment, and by lifting the naval blockade, ships carrying fuel and food should have been sent to the port of Hodeidah, but the Saudis blocked Yemeni benefiting from the deal.
Ansarullah had repeatedly said that they will not agree to a ceasefire that does not secure interests for the Yemeni people. Abdul Majid al-Hansh, a member of Ansarullah team in the peace talks, said before the end of the ceasefire that Sana'a is not opposed to the extension of the ceasefire but it does not accept a sham truce. The members of Arab aggression coalition, as well as the international community must first prove their good will if they are really looking for a secure region and real peace, he maintained.
The Yemenis had repeatedly announced that dozens of ships carrying fuel were seized by the Saudi coalition and were not allowed to enter the Yemeni ports, and this issue aggravated the crisis as they were in dire need of fuel, and with the continuation of this situation in winter, the fuel crisis could became much more severe. Seizure of fuel tankers in Yemen comes as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have plundered Yemen's oil and gas resources by occupying the energy fields and made huge profits from their sales.
In the past six months, Saudi Arabia was relived from Ansarullah's missile and drone attacks with the ceasefire and carried out its plans without fear or worry from Yemeni retaliation, and since the Ansarullah hands were tied, the Saudis felt that they hand the upper hand in the developments. But without truce, the Yemeni hands are open and can carry out their strikes wherever in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Resorting to any trick to get Ansarullah's green light for truce extension in order to help the Saudi regime out of its self-made quagmire with a saved face, the US and the UN failed in their efforts. In the eight years of the war on Yemen, contrary to Saudi and Emirati claims, the Arab coalition has not achieved anything, and even the staggering costs of the war and the withdrawal of foreign investors from Saudi Arabia and the UAE due to the fear of Ansarullah's operations have created new headaches for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
Ansarullah military warnings
The repeated warnings by Ansarullah and several military drills in the past two months were indicative of the fact that the Yemenis are preparing for a different future, and the unveiling of new weapons for land, air and sea battles was based on the premise that the ceasefire is at the end of its road. While the beginning of the war in Yemen was in favor of the Saudi coalition in terms of the balance of forces and weapons power, gradually Ansarullah and the Yemeni army, relying on the domestic capability, produced new weapons that over time changed the battlefield equations in favor of the Yemenis. Now the Yemenis have the upper hand on the ground and have acquired weapons powerful and effective enough to grab the calm from the Saudi and Emirati leaders' eyes.
In its military parade on the anniversary of the Yemeni revolution in September, Ansarullah unveiled domestically-made "Asif 1" missile-launching boats, which have high speed and high maneuverability, several types of ballistic missiles with multiple ranges from short to medium and long, and several new drones. Also, in this parade, advanced weapons and air defenses produced by Yemeni military industries which are capable of identifying hostile aircraft, three types of guided Quds missiles whose range goes beyond the Saudi territory and can hit the Israeli regime, and new generations of drones, including 'Vaid' drone with a range of more than 3000 kilometers, were showed off by the Yemeni forces. Ali al-Kahhoum, a member of Ansarullah's political office, warned the Saudis against ceasefire violations and said that the Yemeni armed forces have developed a kind of "strategic weapon" that can be used against Saudi Arabia if the aggression continues.
Empowered by these technological breakthroughs, Ansarullah now can block Saudi attempts to seize Yemeni ships. The movement's leaders have repeatedly warned that in case of the truce violations, the future war will be different and with broader domain. Additionally, upon the ceasefire expiration, the Yemeni armed forces in a statement said that if the aggression and blockade go on, they will not sit on their hands and strike Saudi and Emirati airports, ports, and oilfields and facilities.
In addition to increasing the military strength of Ansarullah and the Yemeni army in recent months, the field situation in some battlegrounds is also shifting in favor of the Yemenis. In southern regions, especially in Aden as the seat of the Saudi-sponsored Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, Saudi and Emirati mercenaries have been fighting each other for months as none of them can tolerate the presence and control of the opposite side in this region, and this issue, in turn, has led to the escalation of tension between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. The weakening of these actors and the clashes of their proxies can speed up Ansarullah's advances on the eastern and central fronts.
International repercussions of renewed war
Although the consequences of Yemen war in seven years were limited to the region, from the beginning of this year and specifically after Ukraine war, the repercussions of war broke out of Persian Gulf region to leave global impacts. The West, under pressure by energy crisis caused by Ukraine conflict and seeking to provide part of its needs from Saudi Arabia and the UAE and stabilize the oil prices, is highly concerned about resumption of war. The UN and the US know very well that Ansarullah has powerful leverages at their disposal to use to target oil of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and this action will shake the world energy markets. Actually, if Aramco facilities are attacked again, oil prices will skyrocket and unleash new challenges to the West.
Western worries increase when Ansarullah locks its missiles on the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the movement issues such warnings every day. As part of these threats, with the end of the ceasefire, the Yemeni armed forces issued a statement, giving foreign oil companies operating in Saudi Arabia and the UAE a chance to leave. The Sana'a-based Yemen foreign ministry sent separate letters to the foreign ministries of the UN member states and warned against concluding any agreement or oil project in the Yemeni occupied regions. Mehdi Al-Mashat, the head of Yemen's Supreme Council, said that in the absence of a ceasefire, Yemenis "can easily take back their energy sources from the aggressors."
The warnings appear to speak of Ansarullah's plan to launch massive strikes on the Saudi and Emirati oil facilities. Despite the collapse of the ceasefire and restart of clashes, the West and the UN are not disappointed and try to reach out to Ansarullah for a truce. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Special UN envoy to Yemen Hans Grunberg have been engaged in talks with Omani and Iranian officials for mediation. Grundberg called on Ansarullah's forces to show self-restraint, maintain, calm and refrain from provocative actions and any measures that lead to the escalation of violence.
Yemen developments indicate that everything is in favor of Ansarullah and its battleground achievements are giving its a leg up. Now any part of the Persian Gulf and Red Sea is within range of Yemen's missiles that take from the aggression forces the capability to run rampant like before. The best choice for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi rulers is to show wisdom and yield to Ansarullah demands for an exit from their self-made swamp.
