Alwaght- Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, various political arrangements have been made in form of regional and international initiatives to settle the crisis. Now political initiatives are even more significant in determination of the Syrian future as the security conditions relatively improved with the advances made by the central government against foreign-backed terrorist groups and liberation of territories from militias.
In recent years, one of the most influential meetings gathering the Syrian government, its opposition, and also the effective actors in the conflict came under Astana initiative and then Sochi, was arranged by Russia, Iran, and Turkey.
Astana's success in advancing “de-escalation zones”, extending ceasefires to war-ravaged areas, fighting terrorism, returning refugees, and also maintaining the Syrian unity has been substantial. But in the new conditions, the impasse in Idlib case and also prevention of Turkey from arbitrary operations in northern Syria are quite observable challenges.
Despite committing to disarming al-Qaeda terrorists in Idlib and helping to preserve Syria's territorial integrity, Turkey continues to sabotage the efforts towards crisis settlement. This has been the topic of the Turkish dialogues with Syria’s staunchest allies, Russia and Iran, in various regional cases. Tehran and Moscow always accuse Ankara of pushing for continuation of the Syrian crisis despite pro-peace stances taken by the Turkish officials. After all, President Recept Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey apparently has no plans to evacuate the occupied territories in the north and even has greedy eyes on the Syrian territory.
Meanwhile, in the latest meeting of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in the Qatari capital Doha, the Syrian case was again one of the important topics of the talks between the two sides. The outcome was an emphasis on continuation of the cooperation. What was different in this meeting was a thought-provoking announcement in which they agreed on a new tripartite initiative this time including Qatar.
On Friday, Cavusoglu said that the trilateral meetings were "not an alternative to the Geneva summit or the Astana process, but a complement to them." Discussions on ways to co-operate in Syria will continue on high levels and the next meeting will be in Ankara, he continued.
Possible goals behind the trilateral meetings
Goals like delivering humanitarian aids, helping refugee return, and saving the Syrian integrity are stated to be the main drivers behind the new trilateral meeting. But these reasons are far from providing the adequate power for the new initiative. Currently, Astana initiative remains highly influential with the presence of the parties engaged in the Syrian conflict and also covers all of the goals eyed by Doha initiative.
Therefore, if Qatar, which has been a sponsor of terrorist groups in the past years and advocates the crisis and crimes against the Syrian people, thinks about reconsidering its policies towards Syria and is ready to help, it can help resolve the Syrian crisis by attending the Astana meetings, normalize relations with Damascus, and cease support for terrorist groups in Idlib to prove its goodwill.
Other countries, such as Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon, which see their security and national interests tied to the Syrian crisis solution, the fight against terrorism in Syria, and the return of refugees to Syria, have joined the Astana peace process, and of course there is no obstacle to Qatar's joining. Therefore, a mechanism parallel to Astana initiative not only does not help resolve the crisis but also adds to the complexity of the implementation of Astana agreements.
Meanwhile, Moscow seems to be pushing for an agreement with Ankara over Idlib and also the occupational presence of Turkey in northern Syria which in practice can lead to circumvention of the Syrian government and the Astana process.
Turkey is the most significant logistical and intelligence supporter of terrorist groups in Idlib and Qatar is a bankroller to them. Idlib and its people, reports from international organizations suggest, are taken hostage by these terrorists. If the routes are opened by terrorists, the people of Idlib will move to safer, government-controlled areas. To be precise, Turkey and Qatar not only will not help settle Idlib crisis but also their so-called humanitarian plans serve the stay of terrorists and prolong Idlib crisis.
Removing Syria as a leading party of equations from the decisions, even if Moscow advances its negotiations with Ankara and Doha in consultation with Damascus, questions the outcomes of the initiative, undermines the Syrian government’s legitimacy, and damages the Russian relations with its allies including Syria.
