Alwaght- Turkey, which has been regarded as a crisis-generating factor in the Iraqi and Syrian developments over the past decade, these days has taken a path of interaction with its neighbors.
In this connection, Turkey and Iraq after several years of border disputes over Turkish army presence in Iraq's north, finally signed a security pact last week to settle their differences and defuse periodical tensions.
This historic agreement was inked during Iraqi foreign minister's visit to Ankara. Turkish FM Hakan Fidan on Thursday announced the security, military, and counterterror agreement, adding: "Through the joint coordination and training centers planned within the framework of this agreement, we believe that we can take our cooperation to a higher level."
A Turkish diplomatic source also added in a conversation with the country's media that the agreement emphasizes the establishment of a joint center for security coordination in Baghdad, in addition to a joint training and cooperation center in Bashiqa town in Nineveh province, where Turkey operates military bases.
For his part, the Iraqi FM Fuad Hossein, while calling Thursday's agreement "unprecedented in the history of relations between the two countries", said about the details of this agreement that "according to the draft agreement, the responsibility of the Bashiqa base will be transferred to the Iraqi forces and the base ell be repurposed to a training center, and Iraq has decided to put Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) on the list of banned groups."
Draft of this security pact was finalized last week, while the issue of security cooperation and efforts to sign a comprehensive agreement regarding the most important security concerns of the two countries was one of the main issues of the negotiations between the leaders of Turkey and Iraq during Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Baghdad three months ago.
Turkey has been violating the Iraqi sovereignty for months under the excuse of fighting its home archenemy PKK, a Kurdish separatist group it labels as terrorist. Baghdad has repeatedly condemned the Turkish attacks on its territory, suing Ankara in the international courts.
In the meantime, in recent months, with the start of open and secret consultations between the two countries, Iraqi officials, such as President Abdul Latif Rashid, expressed hope for the possibility of reaching an agreement through diplomatic negotiations.
Why has Turkey yielded to an agreement?
The fact that Turkey yielded to this agreement after a decade of intermittent attacks on Iraqi soil is open to examination from various aspects, showing that Ankara leaders have weighed up all the issues and concluded that cooperation with Iraq in this period is better for Turkey. It is noteworthy that the Iraqi government in recent years has several times sued Turkey for its incursions and occupation in the north and called for a halt.
In several statements, the UN asked Turkey to respect the sovereignty of Iraq. Therefore, Turkey was worried that the volume of Iraqi complaints against Ankara would distort its face and present an aggressive image of Turkey to the world. Therefore, with this security agreement, Turkey is trying to prevent new complaints from Baghdad and strengthen its political image. Because in Ukraine and Gaza wars, Turkey presented a peace-seeking and conciliatory face and demanded mediation between the conflicting parties.
Another issue that pushed Ankara to security cooperation with Baghdad is the effectiveness of gradual reactions of the Iraqi resistance groups which after their successful record of fight against terrorism and separatism are now acting as a powerful force protecting Iraqi security and territorial integrity in home and foreign equations.
In recent years, Iraq's voluntary resistance forces, officially called Public Mobilization Forces (PMF) or Hashd Al-Shaabi in Arabic, have always described Turkey as an aggressor and wanted the country's forces to leave Iraq, and at times they carried out rocket and drone attacks on some Turkish positions inside Iraq. These groups, which have carried out hundreds of attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria and the Israeli regime after the start of the Gaza war in the last ten months, have proven that they have the ability to challenge and impose costs on the Turkish aggression forces on the Iraqi soil.
In fact, the continuous attacks on American bases, which are unprecedented after the Second World War, were a kind of warning to the northern neighbor that the Iraqi resistance will deal with all aggressors like this, and maybe after US, it will be Turkey's turn. Therefore, Erdogan prefers not to clash with the resistance groups that have changed the equations of the region, because he knows that confronting these groups will cost Ankara a lot.
Another point is that with this security deal, Ankara wants to leave confrontation with the PKK to Baghdad for the latter to neutralize the terrorist threats of this group.
In the security agreement with Iran, Iraq similarly had committed to keep the separatist groups away from Iran's borders, and Turkey is also trying to get such guarantees from Baghdad by following the example of this agreement. Turkey knows that the long-term presence of military forces in Iraq and attacks on terrorist positions costs a lot financially, and for this purpose, it has divided the work with the security agreement so that Iraq also participates in its anti-terror operations.
Indeed, it is not unthinkable that Ankara pursues a hidden goal behind this agreement, and it is that if the Iraqi government neglects its obligations, it can use this excuse to resume attacks against the PKK and make it seem legitimate and practically block the path of any legal opposition from Baghdad.
Security paves the way for Erdogan’s favorable corridor
Beside the security and military factors, a major part of the ground leading to this security agreement is economic.
Since many countries in the region are competing to control international trade by creating new economic-commercial corridors, Turkey intends to play a central role in connecting trade between Asia and Europe.
Since last year, when the "New Delhi-Middle East-Europe" corridor was proposed by US President Joe Biden, while opposing this project, Turkey tried to implement its alternative corridor with the help of regional partners. For this reason, an agreement was signed with the Iraqi government to build the Al-Faw-Turkey-Europe "development road" corridor.
Under this agreement, by 2025, the expansion of Al-Faw port capacity will reach 90 berths, in which case this port will surpass Dubai's Jebel Ali port as the largest container port in the region.
With the conclusion of this project, the Iraqi trade volume will increase considerably and bigger opportunities will be provided to facilitate Turkish trade to South and East Asia.
According to official Turkish data, Turkey's bilateral trade with Iraq was worth 19.9 billion dollars in 2023. Therefore, in order to benefit from economic corridors, Turkey needed security cooperation with Iraq, which it had to agree to due to commercial considerations. Because trade corridors can be successful when security prevails in the region, and Turkey's encroachment on Iraqi territory and the attacks of separatist elements were an obstacle in this path.
In order to achieve the desired goals and results of the development road project, it looks necessary to strengthen diplomatic relations with the neighbors, and after normalizing relations with Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Ankara is trying to consolidate relations with Iraq and realize its ambitious commercial plans.
These security and economic agreements have many benefits for Iraq, too, and in the future, if Ankara wants to continue with its aggressive policies, it can put pressure on Turkey and wrest concessions from the Turks by straining Turkey's economic lifeline.
Dim outlook of agreement
Though the two countries have signed this security agreement, given the experience of past years and Iraq's distrust in the Turkish promises, it is yet unclear how implementable in practice these agreements are.
From another aspect, the reaction of the PKK to this agreement matters. Also, it remains to be seen if Baghdad has the necessary will to counter terrorist groups. Actually, everything depends on how much will Baghdad and Ankara show in fulfilling their obligations to eliminate security threats on the common borders.
Real cooperation of the two countries will see the light only when they respect each other's territorial sovereignty and avoid any occupation.
At present, Turkey operates nearly 30 military bases on Iraqi soil. Iraqis want the Turks to evacuate them as a gesture of good will. But if Ankara intends to continue its occupational presence in Iraq, its challenge with the Iraqis will go on, negatively impacting bilateral political and economic relations.
