Alwaght- Normally, it is not an easy job to predict the future developments, but from now as we are in the beginning of the new year, some experts predict the upcoming developments as tense. In fact, in 2024, we would witness expectly heated developments, the most prominent of them are the US elections, the Israeli war in Gaza, and the economic crises in China. Observers expect 2024 to be a of further tensions as the world is seeing multiple challenges in West Asia. This report points to four important predictions for this year given the international factors.
First: Year of Trump’s win or loss
Since the first days of this year, many American and Western newspapers published their most prominent predictions for the new year. The Financial Times predicted that ex-President Donald Trump will lose in the upcoming presidential elections in November. According to this newspaper, the current President Joe Biden will retain his presidency. This prediction comes as Mashaan Al-Mazrouei, a political geography professor, expects the Republicans to win the presidential race, because the Democrats have so far failed badly under Biden to realize their goals and promises.
This expert tells Al-Khalij Online that given the debate about restructuring the world system, American policy has declined significantly and there are many expectations that the world system will become multi-polar and the US will be forced to make difficult choices due to its failure to take bold, strong and decisive decisions, especially in West Asia. Al-Mazrouei explains that what happened on the part of the Democrats in this region is successive failures, and this will have a great impact on the upcoming American elections and will make Biden’s job more difficult. He added that even the Arab lobby is completely against Biden’s regional policies.
Second: Year of solidification of Russia’s Ukraine position
In an analysis of the future of Ukraine war, Le Figaro suggests that in 2024, President Vladimir Putin of Russia will solidify the gains he made over the past year in Ukraine. According to the French daily, the Russians will focus all of their strength on saving their gains in the new year, and the Russian military will even shift to an more offensive mode and this is a gift for Putin in the upcoming elections, set for March.
The French newspaper also believes that Trump’s entry into the White House will mean the biggest gift to Russia, since the former president is not an advocate of backing Ukraine.
Earlier, NBC News reported that the American and European officials have already started negotiations with the Ukrainian authorities to entertain the possibility of ceding parts of the country’s territory to Moscow as part of a peace deal with Russia.
Third: Year of possible WWIII
There are also data that may suggest the current year can be a year of a third world war among world powers. The confrontation between China and the US in the South China Sea is growing increasingly heated and Washington is determined to maintain this tension with Beijing. This will push the US to a direct involvement in a conflict with China.
From another aspect, the conflict in West Asia between Israel and Gaza can spill over to beyond borders, and in this case, the American entry to a regional war would be inevitable.
Fourth: Year of no gains in Gaza war
2024 began in exceptional and unprecedented conditions for Palestine. The war on Gaza has been going on since three months ago and there is no much hope of defusing it.
Many official and unofficial reports suggest that Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip will continue throughout 2024, as the Israeli military continues to bomb the besieged enclave incessantly.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari on December 31 said that the current war goals require a readiness for a long-term conflict, adding that the war will continue in the new year.
Also, last year, the Knesset passed amendments to the budget to fund war in 2024.
Moreover, Tel Aviv has so far not met any of its war goals in Gaza, and pressure and public discontentment will mount on the government and military officials who will press ahead with their aggression in Gaza despite making no gains.
