Alwaght- While the US is resorting to any trick to maintain its traditional allies and preserve the Western-made world order, its rivals Russia and China seem to have acted more successfully and managed to grab other countries to their side. The Russian-Chinese efforts to create a new world order resting on a multi-polar structure that poses a threat to the American global hegemony has increased the convergence of the Eastern powers with other countries.
The UAE, which has been acting in accordance with the dictated US policies, now is trying to review its policies to best fit the new geopolitical developments. In this connection, the AP, citing the leaked US Defense department’s documents, reported that Abu Dhabi has deepened its intelligence cooperation with Moscow. Despite the fact that the Americans have refrained from commenting on the document, the Emiratis have rejected any collaboration with a country’s intelligence apparatus against another country’s intelligence. In a statement, Abu Dhabi said that its officials did not see the leaked document and that the claims about the Pentagon’s document were “lies.”
Signs of Russian-Emirati cooperation
Although the UAE denies any intelligence cooperation with the Russians, many factors support the theory of Abu Dhabi intelligence partnership with Russia, as well as China. The talk about intelligence cooperation of the UAE with Russia to damage the Arab country’s relationship with the US and Britain is indicative of a substantial development in the US relations with its main allies. This seems to be the reason why the US is not interested to admit this fact as it knows it damages its interests.
The AP further reported that Washington has increasing concerns that this cooperation allows Russia to bust the sanctions the West imposed on it because of Ukraine war.
“In mid-January, FSB officials claimed the UAE security service officials and Russia had agreed to work together against US and UK Intelligence agencies, according to newly acquired signals intelligence,” the report read.
The assessment concluded that “the UAE probably views engagement with Russian intelligence as an opportunity to strengthen growing ties between Abu Dhabi and Moscow and diversify intelligence partnerships amid concerns of US disengagement from the region.”
The authenticity of the document is under question, but the Americans are increasingly talking about Russia-UAE interaction boost.
The US intelligence officials have also indicated possible ties between the UAE and the Wagner Group, Russia’s controversial, secretive paramilitary group, according to the document. In 2020, the US Defense Intelligence Agency claimed that the UAE “may provide some financing” for the group in support of operations of General Khalifa Haftar in Libya.
In October, federal prosecutors in New York also announced charges against two Russian men based in Dubai who were allegedly part of an operation to steal military technology from US companies.
The two countries’ intelligence cooperation comes as in 2018, they signed a strategic cooperation document that included partnership in oil and gas, renewable energy, nuclear technology, scientific and technological cooperation, aviation, industry, and pharmaceutical sectors.
The boost of Arab cooperation with Russia takes place in a condition that after the war in Ukraine, the White House officials bent over the backwards to isolate Moscow around the world by building a consensus against Russia, but these efforts have backfired and the tendency towards Moscow has increased among countries.
Abu Dhabi-Washington gaps
Despite the fact that the American-Emirati relations remain as strong as they were and thousands of American troops are stationed in the Arab country, the developments of the recent years signal that regional countries including the UAE are distancing from the American policies. The American President Joe Biden invited the Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed from last summer for a Washington visit, but the latter has not paid the visit yet. This is just one example of this distancing. Media outlets argue that this demonstrates existence of problems in their bilateral relations.
Also, after the war in Ukraine, which disturbed the energy markets and subsequently caused a price rally, the UAE, together with Saudi Arabia, responded negatively to the request of the US to increase oil production in order to push down the surging global oil prices and refused to cooperate with Western sanctions against Moscow. All these developments indicate that the rulers of Abu Dhabi are looking to review their policies.
As the UAE and Saudi Arabia distance themselves from the US, they strengthen their relations with Russia and China. In recent years, the UAE broadened its relations with China, and their cooperation is still thriving. As the leaked documents said, Beijing had plans for a military base in the UAE, but the US opposed it. Over the past years, China and Russia have tried to attract the countries of the Persian Gulf to engagement in their desired new order that runs counter to the Western model, and in the meantime they have achieved success. The visits of senior Russian and Chinese officials to the Persian Gulf monarchies and the summits with the members of the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council are all proofs that the convergence between the Arab states and Russia and China is gaining momentum.
With the Iranian-Arab relations improving, Russia and China are pushing to beef up regional alliances, as these countries would have an important role in setting the global policies in the future due to their rich energy resources.
If the leaked secret documents are authentic, it can be said that the UAE, like Saudi Arabia, has concluded that setting hope on the US for security would not settle the future challenges. Actually, the UAE, under bin Zayed, who dreams of Arab world leadership, does not wish to put all of its eggs in one basket of the West and this is because the future world is an ‘Eastern world’ where China and Russia lead. Therefore, it seems that the UAE intends to get a foothold in the new world order.
Though the UAE shows signs of expansion of partnership with Russia in politics and energy, defense analysts believe that Abu Dhabi at present has no plans to shift from the West to Russia in intelligence area. Though Egypt did this after the 1973 war with Israel and completely shifted from Soviet Union to the Americans in intelligence work, the Emiratis do not seem ready for this shift at all. According to the analysts, especially the British intelligence service still has a large presence in the region, because the people of the Persian Gulf are comfortable in dealing with Britons, and therefore Britain plays a key role in controlling intelligence cooperation with all these countries.
After China-brokered Iran-Saudi Arabia détente agreement, the regional developments moved in a way worrisome to the US. Powerful presence of China in the Persian Gulf, which has been the rampancy ground of the US for several decades, proves that regional developments are not going as Washington wishes, and the Russian-Emirati intelligence cooperation is only a piece of puzzle game of the big powers in the region and in the future more of it will be witnessed among the US allies.
