Alwaght- Amid full disappointment of the Saudi-backed front about saving Ma'rib province from fall amid months-long encirclement of the strategic province by the Ansarullah Movement and army units, in recent weeks a quiet fight has been brewing over taking control of southern and eastern provinces like Al-Mahra, Hadhrahmaut, and Shabwa between the UAE-backed southern militias and Saudi-supported Hadi loyalists.
In recent days, clashes over Shabwa, geopolitically important with rich natural resources, have been heightening.
Al-Arabi Al-Jadid news outlet, citing a Yemeni official in Shabwa, reported that Hadi fighters were deployed on Saturday to a region around Balhaf strategic southern port to be "stationed in front of its outer gate."
Competition over control of southern provinces has been warming up as divisions began to rock the southern separatists, officially calling themselves Southern Transitional Council (STC) and Hadi forces.
Why is Shabwa important?
Shabwa is Yemen's third-largest province, located in the center of the country. It is neighbor to four significant provinces: Hadhrahmaut in the east, Ma'rib in the north, Abyan and Al-Bayda in the west. This geographic position gives the province special importance in the war, making it the key logistics and support supply line for the main frontlines.
The province, which consists of 17 districts with an area of 43,000 square kilometers, is one of the least populated areas in Yemen. The estimated population of Shabwa is between 600,000 and 700,000 in several small towns, the largest of which is its center Ataq. Nine tribes and a couple of families of southern Hashmite, whose faith is Shafei'i Sunni Islam, account for the vast majority of the population there.
The province is home to mountains, plateaus, and valleys in northwest and center. The southern coasts of Shabwa are about 300 kilometers, with "fishing villages" that include Bir Ali, Hurrah, and Balhaf. Balhaf port, located at the end of eastern coast of Shabwa, reported is hope to the biggest foreign investment that constructed Balhaf LNG Terminal.
Shabwa is one of the main oil-producing provinces of Yemen, along with Hadhramaut to the east and Ma'rib to the northwest. The first commercial oil discovery in Shabwa was announced in 1987 while the province was still part of the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, or South Yemen. But it was only after the unification of Yemen that major oil reserves in Shabwa were discovered and opened for production.
All oil and gas production in Shabwa ceased shortly after the start of the war in 2015, and since then limited operations have begun in the province. According to the Shabwa branch of the ministry of oil and gas, current production in the province is between 8,000 and 9,000 barrels per day, down from 69,000 barrels per day before the war.
Control of the province's oil resources is one of the main causes of the current conflict between the ousted Mansour Hadi government and forces loyal to the STC, which seeks to return the province and its resources to southern authority.
Following the capture of Aden as the capital of Hadi's government by UAE-affiliated separatists, in August 2019, Abu Dhabi sought to establish a security belt under its auspices in Shabwa, under the pretext of helping the province's security and fighting Al-Qaeda terrorists, to seize Ataq from Hadi forces. As the fighting escalated by the end of the month, however, Hadi government forces took control of almost all areas of Shabwa, except for the port of Belhaf and the UAE-controlled Al-Alam military base.
The rivalry continued despite the largely-failed Riyadh agreement signed in November 2019 to divide power between the southerners and Hadi. The Hadi-appointed Aden governor, who survived an assassination plot in June 2020, repeatedly complained about the Emirati intervention in provincial government affairs.
If the separatist forces take control of Shabwa, they will be able to hope for progress in the oil-rich areas of Hadrahmaut and Al-Mahra and full control of southern Yemen. Shabwa offers a bulwark with Hadhrahmaut and Al-Mahra and fronts to defebd them and thus is of great importance to the Hadi.
Saudi-Emirati rivalry in southern Yemen
When Abu Dhabi announced its large-scale military withdrawal from Yemen in the summer of 2019, it left much of its military activity in southern Yemen to Saudi Arabia. However, the UAE has kept some of its forces in Balhaf and Al-Alam military bases.
Saudi Arabia has little influence in the south, and while on the northern fronts the situation is worsening for the Saudi and Hadi interests amid siege of Ma'rib by Ansarullah, the need to make at least a modest achievement from this hugely costly war pushes Riyadh to competition with Abu Dhabi in the south.
The Saudis have a smaller role in Shabwa than in other southern provinces and offered to locals military and humanitarian aids. This is because since the beginning, the Saudis concentrated on the north and the Emiratis took over the south. Although the UAE supports Shabwa elite fighters as counterterrorism forces, these forces actually work to strengthen the southern separatists in that province.
The clashes between Hadi and separatist forces, indeed, undermines the anti-Sana'a front and grants Ansarullah the upper hand and empowers its push for new advances in central and western coast provinces.
With these in mind, apparently nothing is left of the Saudi-Emirati coalition but a name, just like Hadi alliance with the southerners.
