Alwaght- Recep Tayyip Erdogan is forming his new government while, firstly, due to candidacy of a large number of the cabinet members for the parliament and entry to the parliament as Justice and Development Party (AKP) representatives and, secondly, because of facing a litany of foreign and home challenges, especially the economic crisis, he is shaking up his cabinet, and by picking powerful figures for key ministers, he is seeking to realize the so-called ‘Turkish Century’ project. Meanwhile, one of the major posts all eyes were on to see whom will Erdogan pick was the foreign minister.
Now with the selection of the Director of National Intelligence Organization (MIT) Hakan Fidan for the post of foreign ministry, many questions present themselves in the Turkish political outlets and media, especially that observers expected Fidan to be selected as new interior minister as this post is security-related and relevant to his previous post.
Turkey is now stepping into a new and completely different period and, therefore, the composition of the Erdogan's new cabinet was expected to be different from the previous one. Appointment of Hakan as FM, especially with regard to his key role in confrontation of the PKK, the Golenists, and other opposition factions and advancement of the controversial regional policy and neo-Ottomanism, from a variety of aspects can bear important messages to the regional and international actors, as well as Erdogan's internal allies and opponents.
Fidan, Turkey's man in the shadow
Fidan, who is called by many as Turkey's security architect in the region, has gone a long way to reach the FM post. Fidan was born in Ankara in 1968 and spent most of his academic education at the Army War College and the Army Foreign Languages College. He also has a bachelor's degree in political science and management from the University of Maryland, USA, and master's and PhD degrees in international relations from Bilkent University, Ankara. Fidan was a member of the board of directors of the International Atomic Energy Agency and a special representative of the prime minister of Turkey. Since 2010, he has been the head MIT.
Turkey's new top diplomat has never given an interview during his career in government, even as stories about him and MIT made headlines and sparked public curiosity about the country's youngest security man. He is known for his good relationship with Erdogan, and tried to unite intelligence services of the foreign ministry, security apparatus, and the military under the flag the MIT, sending many military commanders worried.
The influence of Hakan’s organization of the national intelligence agencies and making them competitive to the foreign intelligence agencies, especially those of the Israeli regime, was observable during his period as MIT head, as the start of his job was coincident with rising tensions between Ankara with Tel Aviv, and due to this, any Israeli moves were put under Turkish intelligence watch. Fidan managed to block activities of Mossad on the Turkish soil as part of his mission. The most prominent job of him followed the July 2016 military coup against Erdogan. The MIT led the push to eliminate Golenists from the nation's bureaucratic system. This crackdown on the coup plotters brought him even closer to Erdogan. That once the president said “he is my confidante and the government's confidante” is not baseless and these comments came in gratitude to Fidan's services for protection of Erdogan's power. It is not senseless if we say that Fidan was one of the figures contributed to Erdogan’s victory in recent elections. All of the government opposition were removed by the intelligence service, making a rampancy ground for Erdogan.
Although some people argue that Fidan does not have the necessary expertise in the foreign policy, in the past 13 years, he has had extensive contacts with all Turkish embassies abroad and is no stranger to political issues, and he was present in many of Erdogan's foreign trips, and in other words, he had prepared himself for such a day. Fidan was also an adviser to ex-FM Ahmet Davutoglu, something showing that he is experienced enough for Erdogan to shrugged off the critics.
A pile of unsettled security cases on Fidan’s desk
Fidan's appointment to the foreign ministry post demonstrates that Erdogan seeks an adept diplomat to lead the country’s foreign policy at a time of heightening Ukraine war and complicated relations with West Asian countries, including Syria. Today, Turkey is entering a new era that is completely different from the past. Having in mind that the new foreign minister has deep information of and relations with neighboring countries and Europe, he is perhaps the most appropriate figure for Turkey to put up a new face in the upcoming years.
As the intelligence chief, Fidan paid many visits to West Asia, Europe, Africa, and Russia and built insights and interactions that can help him in his new post.
Given the fact that over the past decade Turkey set up its interaction policy with West Asia, East, and the West on a security logic, appointing Fidan to the top of the foreign policy apparatus can help settle many pending cases. In recent years, some sources pointed to Fidan as one of the most powerful security figures in the region who has played an important role in many security issues in the Caucasus, Libya, Syria, and other countries and has secured tangible results to the Turkish policy on the international stage.
One of the important cases for Turkey's foreign policy is the Syrian crisis, which started when Fidan was intelligence chief, and now he himself held meetings in Moscow with his Russian and Syrian counterparts about the developments in Syria in recent months in order to prepare the ground for a détente with Damascus after 12 years. Security experts believe that with Fidan's active foreign policy role, there will be noticeable progress in Turkey's foreign policy in Syria and Ukraine cases.
Northern Cyprus is another case having proven to be a fundamental challenge between Turkey and Cyprus. During his security career, Fidan gathered many intelligence on the case and held multiple meetings with leaders of the Turkish-majority part of Cyprus (Northern Cyprus), and, therefore, he will work as much as he can on the case in favor of Turkey's interests on international arena.
Turkey's biggest challenge in recent years has been the competition with Greece over the disputed islands in the Mediterranean Sea, which at times even brought them to the brink of war. This case worried the members of the NATO who are worried the gap between the two allies poses a serious threat to the world's largest military alliance. Therefore, in order to win against Greece, Turkey's new minister must bring the Westerners to his country's side and perhaps get concessions from the West in such cases in exchange for a green light to Sweden's NATO accession.
Since in the past years Fidan has been the behind-the-scenes architect of rapprochement with Egypt and Persian Gulf Arab monarchies, his appointment can speed up the reconciliation process with Cairo. Erdogan and Egyptian officials have recently voiced their readiness to reopen embassies and resume diplomatic relations, and perhaps Fidan's diplomacy will conclude this process earlier than the normal pace.
According to some observers, the improvement of relations between Turkey and Egypt will reflect positively on Libyan crisis, facilitate a political resolution, and ultimately lead the war-torn country to elections even sooner.
Since Erdogan has been aspiring to de-escalate with other countries, Fidan is expected to make for Turkish policy a winning knight in West Asia, the Mediterranean, and Red Sea games.
Concerning Ukraine war, Turkey in the first months of war tried to pose as a peace seeker via its mediatory efforts, but the Russian-Western tensions are too deep to be defused by Ankara. Still, under Fidan, Turkey will ramp up its diplomatic efforts for a solution to Ukraine conflict, now in its second year. Though the US and Europe are trying to separate Turkey from Russia and align it with them, Fidan does not seem to be a good choice for the Westerners, because he was present in all of Erdogan's meetings with Russian officials and has a complete insight of the Russians vision and he, instead, would possibly works on further expansion of Turkish-Russian relations.
Erdogan has come to the notion that if he wishes to upgrade Turkey’s position globally, he needs to maintain relations with all powers, and any challenges can pose an obstacle to Turkish Century project. Perhaps Fidan was picked as PM to help Ankara find new friends in the region and the world.
Despite the fact that many experts describe Fidan an appropriate choice for the FM post that helps resolve the country’s differences with regional states and the West, since he was one of the fomenters of the Turkish tensions in the region, questions rise about his power of success in these cases, especially in Syria case in which, on the one hand, Turkey wants to normalize with Turkey and, on the other hand, does not want to pull out its forces from northern Syria. It is said that one of the main masterminds of Turkish military presence in Syria was Fidan who resolutely and seriously pursued obliteration of the Kurdish terrorist organizations, and actually a man with such view and beliefs can pose a new challenge to brewing rapprochement. Now it remains to see if in the next five years that mark the end of Erdogan's political life Turkey can embrace its favorable position or the president will hand over the administration to the future leaders with an accumulation of crises.
