Alwaght- As the occupied territories are grappling with political tensions caused by the several-month massive protests, political observers argue that Tel Aviv’s recent tensions abroad derive from a Netanyahu and his friends’ push to shock the Israeli society to get rid of waves of home crisis.
In recent days, Israeli media reported that the Israeli military is preparing for a sea confrontation with Hezbollah. Walla news website said that the Israeli forces are preparing for a sea escalation because Tel Aviv thinks that the Lebanese resistant movement has tens of advanced missiles that pose threats to the ships and sensitive oil rigs and facilities off its coast.
In recent years, Hezbollah has acquired remote-controlled submarines, drones, cruise missiles, and even coast-fired missiles, which pose a threat to the Israeli naval vessels, gas platforms, and sensitive and strategic areas off the Israeli coast, according to Israeli military estimates.
Recently, Israeli military said that four Sa’ar 6-class corvettes have been leading a major mission to protect gas rigs in the Mediterranean. Sa’ar-6 corvettes are equipped with customized Iron Dome air defense systems.
The Israeli military warned that indirect and direct maritime threats from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza against Israel have broadened. But most importantly, the threat from Iran has increased, it warned. According to Israeli media reports, this regime’s navy will receive the first amphibious assault ship called “Nahshon” this summer and will add the second one from the same class to its naval fleet in the winter.
Hezbollah’s ultimatum
The Israeli movements around Karish gas field that is shared with Lebanon comes as the field in recent years has been the biggest flash point in tensions between Tel Aviv and Hezbollah, and last year, Israel pushed to unilaterally produce gas at it but backed down following repeated warnings by Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who said that if Lebanon does not produce gas front the disputed field, it will not allow the Israelis to produce. The tensions ended with agreements for sharing the reserves.
After Lapid-Bennet coalition government reached an agreement with Lebanon on the gas resources, Netanyahu declared it a big defeat for the Israelis and addressed the citizens of this regime, saying that Yair Lapid, then prime minister, “sold Israel to the enemies", vowing that he will revoke the gas deal as soon as he returns to power. Given these remarks, Netanyahu and his allies seem to intend to seize all of the gas field as they plan to export gas to European allies amid the energy crunch caused by Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia.
Lebanon is currently technically incapable of producing gas at the common field. A Western company was planned to do the job, but so far has taken no steps. The Israelis said they cannot postpone the Karish gas production forever and Netanyahu government seems to plan to resume gas even though it does not bring about good consequences for Tel Aviv.
Testing Hezbollah’s sea power
The Israeli regime and Hezbollah have been at a ceasefire since 2006 and since then, except for limited tensions, no major incidents took place between them. Therefore, the Israelis do not have precise information about the resistant movement’s sea power. Unilateral moves at the gas field indicate that Tel Aviv intends to test Hezbollah’s power at the sea. The Israelis now consider Hezbollah as a powerful army that can change the equations in the region due to its military capabilities at all levels.
Informed security sources have announced in the shadow of recent developments in the northern front that the examination of the Israeli army shows that Hezbollah procured naval combat equipment in recent years, an issue that can broaden the scope of future conflicts with Israel. These military surveys show that Hezbollah’s naval power is a serious threat to warships and gas platforms and sensitive and strategic facilities of the Israeli regime off its coast. Therefore, obtaining more information about the enemy’s capability allows them to consider all aspects in any military action.
Although in current conditions it is unlikely that Tel Aviv engages in a confrontation with Hezbollah, it is likely Netanyahu causes tensions to force a Hezbollah reaction like naval drills to demonstrate readiness to fight the Israelis. Actually, Hezbollah’s unveiling of its sea achievements helps Israeli military develop a relative picture of its foe’s capabilities.
The Israeli government is playing with fire despite admitting to Hezbollah power. But this time Hezbollah will not show tolerance with the occupation and would take revenge on Tel Aviv for its warmongering in Palestine and Syria.
Israeli regime heavily relies on sea borders and 80 percent of its trade is done through sea, and guarantee of sea security contributes to smooth navigation. The Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea are its economic arteries, but one is under the control of Ansarullah in Yemen and the other is under the control of Hezbollah, and this is a serious threat to Tel Aviv’s vital arteries, and Tel Aviv leaders are trying to get rid of these economic bottlenecks.
Hezbollah, which in 2006 was less capable militarily than now, managed to strike and sink a Sa’ar-class vessel, practically neutralizing Israeli naval maneuverability during the war. At the time, Israeli military analysts admitted to its sea power. So, in case of a new confrontation, Hezbollah will act way stronger and can seize the Israeli economic pulse in the Mediterranean.
It is likely that Tel Aviv seeks to start a new conflict with Hezbollah to undermine it in the sea beside testing its power and then tip the scales in the sea in its favor. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly said that Hezbollah has thousands of missiles, including pinpoint ones, and drones that can target all the occupied territories. The Israelis themselves believe in the fulfillment of Nasrallah’s promises, and for this reason, they refrain from confronting Hezbollah. In July last year, by deploying drones over Israeli gas facilities, Hezbollah sent a message to the Israelis that it is ready to deal with any kind of aggression.
It is total illusion to think that the Israelis can destroy Hezbollah’s naval and missile power since similar thinking existed in the Israeli military circles about Gaza, but despite frequent conflicts, Hamas and Islamic Jihad not only were not weakened, but also created deterrence against the occupation. These groups even armed the West Bank, turning it into a nightmare for the Israelis.
Israeli hardliners think that by opening a new front out of the occupied territories they can get rid of the home predicament they are in, but obviously Hezbollah involvement in a conflict is never good to the Israelis because the outcome of the recent regional developments suggests that this time the clashes will not be limited to Lebanon and all the wings of Axis of Resistance will get involved and missiles will rain down on Israeli cities from Yemen to Gaza to Syria. In addition, Hezbollah would tighten the noose on the Israelis from air, sea, and ground.
Tel Aviv has proven in recent months that it is afraid of waging a war even on the Palestinian groups, let alone fighting Hezbollah which is way more powerful from them and would make Israelis pay a high price in any confrontation.
Recent rocket fire from southern Lebanon on the occupied territories and then from Gaza and Syria made it clear that resistance forces have their fingers on the trigger and if Tel Aviv makes any miscalculation, it will regret it. Tel Aviv has so far experienced two defeats in confrontation of Hezbollah and the third experience will bring a tragic end to it, perhaps realizing Israeli President Issac Herzog’s prediction that Israel will collapse before celebrating its 80th anniversary.
