Alwaght- The siege of Aleppo could be considered an effective hit delivered by Syrian resistance to the armed forces and their supporters, and in case of medium and long term preservation of these achievements, it will cause strategic developments in the field of the Syrian crisis.
Given the recent operations of the Syrian army in Aleppo and great achievements that were unprecedented in the past few years, it seems that aside from military affairs such as advancing and positioning the regime in north of Latakia, Rif Damascus Governorate, Deir ez-Zor province, and the southern front, other internal and external factors also affected them.
Internally, in can be noted that the event of the army taking control of some regions, especially Rif Damascus Governorate, as well as holding parliamentary election and consequently, electing technocrat and executive government rather than logistic government, and slight improvement of public services in areas under control of the government, sent the message to the Syrian public that government is stabilizing, which led to the return of some refugees to their homes. Given this information it is understandable how even the most pessimistic of experts of developments in Syria, consider the possibility of fall of the Syrian regime unlikely.
Considering the current situation and how close the peace negotiations of Syria are, some armed forces with media, financial and military support of Arab and Western backers, are trying to unify their forces, so they can break the siege while having a better stance and position in negotiations, but have not had much success due to the Syrian army and resistance groups’ opposition.
Externally, the internal developments of Turkey has had some effect on armed forces under the support of this country, since after the failed coup attempt, domestic and international officials in Turkey, are heavily involved in the problems and consequences caused by the coup. On the other hand, given the economical and political problems of Turkey, it seems political and economical officials of Turkey have come to the conclusion that expanding economical interactions will solve some of these issues, however in order to achieve that, they need to alter their relations with neighboring countries such as Russia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, and even Syria. This has paved the way for changes in Turkey’s policies in support of the Syrian armed groups.
Also, with the increase of terrorist operations by Takfiri and terrorist groups in Europe, and due to popular demand in this region, support of Syrian groups has been reduced in these countries, and they have come to the conclusion that the Syrian army and other resistance groups are the only forces powerful enough to suppress the Takfiri and terrorist groups. Although due to serious conflicts with the axis of resistance in Syria, these countries refuse to express this fact, and this dual approach has led to the persistence and continuation of the crisis in Syria.
Saudi Arabia, as one of the main supporters and backers of the Syrian armed groups, is experiencing economic crisis and this has also affected the Syrian opposition front.
It seems with the abovementioned factors, in future of the Syrian crisis and victories in Aleppo strategic developments in domestic and foreign fields will be witnessed, which the possible consequences include:
1. Changing the Syrian opposition groups from forces to change the government to forces for applying pressure for the supporting countries in order to achieve their regional objectives.
2. Turkey’s fading presence in Syria and further weakening of groups affiliated with this country.
3. Consolidation of ruling most cities by Syrian government and gradual return of the refugees to their homes.
4. Strengthening positions and creating further unrest in the southern and eastern fronts and Rif Damascus Governorate, by opposition forces, due to the borders of Jordan and Lebanon and how these groups’ supporting countries are able to send financial and military help through them.
5. Possibility of an increase in terrorist operations in urban areas and public gatherings. It should be noted that when armed groups are failing, their terrorist activities and operations usually increase.
6. Possible increase in international demands for a ceasefire. This is the tactic that Western and Arabic countries apply to prevent the continuation of advancements of the Syrian army and forces of resistance, by influencing international organizations with humanitarian titles.
In conclusion the siege of Aleppo could be considered an effective hit delivered by Syrian resistance to the armed forces and their supporters, and in case of medium and long term preservation of these achievements, it will cause strategic developments in the field of the Syrian crisis. It seems that this will pave the way for the failure of armed groups and regional policies of Western and Arab supporters. Meanwhile the axis of resistance should observe possible activities of the opposing side, and by taking appropriate diplomatic and military measures prevent them from advancing their projects and plans.
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