Alwaght- Armenia, a country that witnessed an uprising seven months ago, held its snap parliamentary election on Sunday.
Various Armenian parties engaged in the Sunday competition but the winner was the “My Step” coalition that is led by the acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashynian whose bloc secured 70.45 percent of the votes.
Pashynian, a journalist-turned-politician, led a protest movement in April last year in the country. With the overwhelming victory, he now has the maximum parliamentary support to proceed with his anti-corruption and reform plans.
According to the reports, the turnout rate was 49 percent. The rival bloc, Prosperous Armenia, won over 8 percent of the votes, the initial results show. The party, led by Gagik Tsarukyan, was part of the ruling coalition under the resigned PM Serzh Sargsyan which once controlled the parliament. The election commission has announced that Bright Armenia, a liberal pro-Western Party, has won 6 percent of the votes.
Significance of Armenia election
The results of the Armenian election in which the former acting PM won the majority were no surprise. Pashynian seven months ago led a successful protest movement against Sargsyan who shortly after the anti-government rallies resigned.
Meanwhile, the election results are important with regard to the country’s protests and also the developments surrounding its neighbors Russia and Iran. The street protests that have been shaking Yerevan over the past few years, in Moscow’s eyes, are similar to those of Georgia and Ukraine that were secretly organized by the Western-backed NGOs and activists.
So, the recent political developments in Armenia are expected to bring tangible changes to the country’s home politics. The Independent and moderate figures are expected to get a bigger chance of flexing their muscles to the veteran politicians who are traditionally members of the Communist Party of Armenia.
Pashynian will have a hard job doing reforms as he has to face the conservative Republican Party of Armenia. RPA is the extension of the Communist Party which was dominant before the independence in the Soviet era. The former PM is a member of this party. Despite the fact that he is no longer in power, his allies are currently holding many of the administrative posts in the country. Since the independence in 1991, the RPA has been in power. Now it is the first time in over two decades that it is losing the power to an opposition party.
On the other side, since the presidency of Sargsyan in 2008, the country saw a surge of unemployment, poverty, corruption, and social inequality, giving rise to widespread discontent. The unemployment and poverty forced many into immigration mainly to Russia. Now number of migrant Armenians in Russia is larger than the Armenian population. Many rural areas are empty or only are home to the elderly. These problems fueled the April protests and now Pashynian has a difficult job of improving the situation.
Armenia’s foreign policy in the new period
The US National Security Advisor John Bolton last month traveled to Armenia and offered Yerevan’s new leadership sealing arms deal with Washington, unveiling the US efforts to get a foothold in Russia’s backyard. Arms sales suggestion to Armenia, while imposing arms sanctions on Russia, signals Washington's aim to launch even a more aggressive policy towards Moscow. Despite the meddling of American organizations like Soros foundation in the Armenian protests, it does not seem that the new Yerevan leaders seek a major shift in their foreign policy.
Armenia is an old ally of Russia as well as the neighboring Islamic Republic of Iran, Washington's main Enemy in the region. Yerevan has always adopted positions consistent with its powerful neighbors in the north and south. There is no strong possibility of a foreign policy change in the new conditions. A look at the record of the cultural relationship between Russia and Armenia makes it clear that Yerevan, unlike the southern Caucasian neighbors of Russia, has never been politically hostile to Russians.
For a long time, Russia has been a rescue angle in the mind of the Armenians. To date, Russia and its military bases in Armenia are being recognized as the main protection force, especially against Azerbaijan which is a top enemy to the country or Turkey whose nationalist government is now more unpredictable than any other time.
The April demonstrations never blasted the country’s foreign policy. The main focus of the rallies was the home policy and the increasing rates of poverty and unemployment.
Pashynian despite his criticism of the previous government has taken friendly stances similar to his predecessor in dealing with Iran and Russia. This is majorly necessitated by a need to the two key neighbors. After all, Armenia, due to the historical and geographical background, has always been in tensions with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The special condition automatically pushes Yerevan to political closeness with Moscow and Tehran.
Tehran-Yerevan friendly relationship reflected itself during Bolton’s visit to Armenia. After the visit, Bolton told the Armenian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that he hops Yerevan would orient its relations toward Azerbaijan – which it regards as an existential threat – around the US's policy of isolating Iran.
Bolton told RFE/RL that “current circumstances highlight” the importance of Armenia and Azerbaijan “finding a mutually satisfactory agreement to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,” referring to the territory over which the two countries are fighting. “Once that happened, then the Armenian-Azerbaijani border would open,” Bolton said. “The Turkish border, I believe, would almost certainly open.”
Responding to Bolton's statement, Pashynian said "John Bolton, or anyone for that matter, cannot speak on my behalf. They are moving forward with the logic that they have some kind of ownership of the Karabakh issue, and now they are attempting to sell it to me, without asking my opinion.”
Furthermore, Defense Minister of Armenia Davit Tonoyan in response to the Bolton’s offer of arms supply to Yerevan said his country for the present time does not need to buy arms from Washington. Washington appears to have been dreaming of getting Yerevan away from Moscow under the new leadership in Armenia. But Tonoyan’s response to the offer shows Yerevan still wants to remain loyal to Russia in the military matters like in politics.
Pashynian during his presidential campaign speeches repeatedly hailed the closeness to Iran and said relations with Tehran have always been at high levels, promising to allow them to continue in the same level. He said there is no disagreement with Iran, though some try to foist disagreement with Tehran on Yerevan.
All these mean that despite the power transition in Armenia after the election which puts an end to the three-decades-long rule of the republicans over the country, we should not expect considerable changes to the foreign policy particularly in relation to Russia and Iran, though domestic change is unavoidable with regard to the public pressures and demands.
