Alwaght- The 2011 uprisings that marked an Islamic awakening in the West Asia region were followed by rise of the terrorist groups in Syria. Terrorist groups under different titles hit Syria. ISIS, al-Nusra Front, Free Syrian Army, all these were titles of groups developed by regional and international sides in a bid to take out the Syrian government. However, when the popular pro-Assad forces joined the fight, they tipped the scales in favor of the Syrian army and its allies from the Axis of Resistance.
The voluntary forces' entry created a relative balance of power between the warring sides in Syria. Today world witnesses the Syrian armed forces victory both in the battlegrounds and in the political scene over both the internal and foreign anti-Assad actors. The US and Saudi Arabia tried out more than one way to topple the government in Damascus, but they so far proved unsuccessful. Recently, the Syrian forces, backed by allies, have made triumphant advances in different fronts across Syria, including the northern city of Aleppo. The eastern parts of Aleppo fell to the terrorist groups in 2013. In reaction, the Syrian forces launched a variety of assaults against the terrorists in different parts of the city since 2014. The 2-year operations for liberating the city finally yielded results, ending up with full liberation of the city, the economic hub of Syria.
The significance of Aleppo in Syria
Economic position: Aleppo is the largest province of Syria and stands as the country’s economic hub. A diversity of ethnic groups and minorities are living in Aleppo. Takfiri groups tried to exploit the religious and ethnic makeup of the city to create gaps between the pro-government popular forces and the army.
The geostrategic position and layout of forces in Aleppo: Aleppo shares border with Turkey and ISIS-held areas of Syria. So, domination of the city marked a final triumph.
Military status: The city is home to military infrastructures like Taftanaz Military Airbase in southwest, operated by the Syrian air force. Al-Jarah Airbase is another military infrastructure of the country's air force there. Al-Jarah Airbase is of great military importance for Damascus. Hafez Al-Assad, the late president of Syria, passed his military training period there.
Existence of Kuweires Military Airbase, military factories, and military collages raise Aleppo as the most important province for military support of the army in northern Syria.
Aleppo geopolitical position: From north, Aleppo shares border with Turkey, from west with the al-Nusra-held Idlib province, from east with the Kurdish regions of the country, and from south with the central regions like Damascus, Hama, and Homs. Indeed, Aleppo was a supply route for pro-terrorist countries to provide anti-government militants with arms and equipment.
Significance of Aleppo for the militants
If Aleppo were fallen to militant groups, four important occurrences could have taken place in Syria– and even the region as a whole– militarily and politically:
Turning Aleppo into a base for opposition and terrorist groups: Having in mind that Aleppo borders Turkey, if it was fully occupied by militants, they could use it as a base for training and equipping newcomers for anti-government operations across Syria. In fact, the terrorist groups sought implementing a scenario like that of Libya and the city of Sirte. During the Libya's crisis, militants first seized control of Sirte in south only to use it as a launching pad for deployments to Benghazi and the capital Tripoli. This scenario subjected the Libyan capital to frequent assaults of the militant groups meant to topple Muammar Gaddafi.
Proximity to Turkey: Aleppo is only 60 to 70 kilometers away from Turkey. Should it have fallen to militants, they could immediately announce a no-fly zone over the northern city, repeating the same scenario happened to Libya when militants captured Sirte.
A no-fly zone originally aims at implementing Libya-style plan this time in Syria. By establishing the safe zone, the Libyan air force was blocked from conducting any airstrikes against the revolutionaries, a scheme finally brought down the Libyan leader Gaddafi.
Potentials for opposition-led government: In case of seizure of Aleppo, a very dangerous scenario could have taken place: formation of a central government by the opposition— a move that could have paved the way for partition of Syria because the rest of Syria would sought shares in a central government, naturally leading to a power struggle and rise of even new small governments and autonomous cantons, like what we see today in Kurdish areas of Syria.
Aleppo liberation stages
Aleppo recapture assault started two years ago, beginning by reclaiming the southern districts of the city. Operation Nasr 1 and 2, which wrested back Nubl and Al-Zahraa towns and other areas in Aleppo, built ground for liberating eastern districts of the city. The government forces imposed encirclement on the east. A watertight blockade pushed the US to broker a ceasefire with Russia, but the truce proved fragile and collapsed soon. The Syrian forces took the initiative and liberated rest of the city, concluding nearly three years of attempts to reclaim the city.
The outcomes of Aleppo liberation
The Aleppo liberation outcomes in general can be categorized as domestic and foreign.
Domestic outcomes
Changing the battlefield balance inside Aleppo: The Syrian army has managed to push back the fighting from Damascus to Aleppo, marking a big achievement for the Syrian government in Damascus. Distancing the security threats from the capital and transferring them to the border areas is considered as a big step of the Syrian forces.
Bolstering army and government positions: Recent victories, and particularly the Aleppo triumph, have bought massive public trust for the Syrian government and army.
Persistence of the operations across the country: Liberation of Aleppo made it clear that on the strength of the popular support the Syrian military could deal blows to the multinational terror groups and flatten the road for new offensives in rest of the country. So, it can be concluded that Aleppo recapture signals an opened way for retaking other terrorist-held provinces such as Idlib and Raqqa, ISIS' stronghold in Syria.
Foreign outcomes
The foreign consequences of winning back Aleppo come in two regional and international sections.
Regional consequences
Tilting the balance of power: Recapture of Aleppo turned the balance of power on its head in favor of Axis of Resistance, against West-Turkish-Saudi camp.
Foiling Wahhabi-Takfiri project: A Saudi-backed plan aimed at promoting Wahhabism across the region, starting from Syria, and if possible, then to Iraq and Egypt. Capture of Aleppo means choking off Riyadh's religious plot at the outset.
International consequences
Russian upper hand: Moscow can employ the win in Syria as a pressure tool against the West internationally, particularly in Ukraine conflict and in dealing with NATO.
Thwarting a number of plots by the Western-Arab-Israeli camp including:
Partition: Syria split plan was devised in 2004. Henry Kissinger, the prominent US political theorist, suggested that to end the West Asia crises the West first needs to cut interconnections of the Axis of Resistance Axis. This required elimination of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and then the other members of the resistant camp, including Iran, Iraq and Palestinian groups. To this end, Tel Aviv started a war against Hezbollah in 2006. However, failure of Hezbollah removal pushed the plotters to start scenario of Syria, which connects Iran with Hezbollah. But they failed to split Syria. They, then, moved to next station, Iraq. They needed to break Iraq into three parts: Kurdish in north, Sunni in the center, and Shiite in south, to disconnect Syria from Iran.
Additionally, Kissinger, formerly US Secretary of State, once again in past few months raised the plot of Syria partition. He argued that to repress ISIS terrorist group and then establish a Russia-backed Assad-led Shiite state and a Sunni state a federal system well suits post-war Syria. This scenario, according to Kissinger, cuts Iran’s access to the Levant region and at the same time addresses the US military interests in Syria.
Following Kissinger strategy release, the Wall Street Journal elaborated on the Syria-related scheme, adding new section to it. According to the American daily's analysis, an autonomous Syrian Kurdistan region should come to existence. WJS added that the Syrian Kurdistan region should be declared as a region independent from the Assad-led Syria. Afterwards, Washington should seek a long-term treaty with the Kurds that will allow the autonomous Kurdish region stand as a main base for US military presence in West Asia. WSJ also recommended that Washington should work out a deal with Russia to guarantee US respect for integrity of Assad-governed state, and get promise of a Russian respect for sovereignty of a new Kurdish region.
Erosive war and then removal: The Israeli Haaretz newspaper wrote that Tel Aviv favors an erosive war in Syria. Yuval Steinitz, the former Israeli energy minister, said that Damascus' winning of the war means Iran "will have borders with the Israeli regime." He added that the risks of Syrian developments outstrip the risks of Gaza tunnels and Hezbollah weapons for Tel Aviv.
Rise of a new alliance comprised of Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, and Iraq's Public Mobilization Forces (PMF): Although this coalition was formed almost a year ago, it now presents itself even more concretely. The Times has recently published a report, saying that the big story of 2017 in West Asia is not the domestic Syrian war but emergence of a new front containing Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and pro-Tehran Shiite militant groups across the region.
Failure of US-led anti-ISIS coalition: Two years ago the so-called international coalition, spearheaded by Washington, began its anti-ISIS air raids. But its strikes proved unfruitful and only destroyed Syria's infrastructures. The experiences show that the only way to obliterate the terrorism is to face it on the ground.
Terrorist groups and prospective scenarios
Defeat in Aleppo as the most important base of the Syrian armed rebels drew a set of steps and scenarios from militants and their supporters, including:
Launching harassment operations: Due to the heavy blows the militants received in Aleppo, they have resort to harassing operations against the Syrian forces. Re-occupation of the ancient city of Palmyra by ISIS was part of attacks.
Resorting to counter-security measures: This scenario contains assassinations, explosions, and targeting the top-security places. Using suicide bombers enable the terrorist groups to strike important neighborhoods of Damascus as the security center of the country. This stage aims at imposing a psychological pressure against the Syrians, and naturally the government.
Forging new terror groups: Odds are that new militant groups announce existence with refreshed support and weapons. Obama administration has banned sending heavy arms to the terrorists but the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir during his meeting with the British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has highlighted the Saudi commitment to wide-ranging military backing for the anti-Assad militants. The US stricter laws against the militants possibly push Riyadh to craft new anti-Damascus groups under new titles. After all, the old ones and their reliance to their supporters began to make heavy prices, and the backers need to seek brand-new terror groups.
Entry to political stage: Two political ways are ahead of Syria: first, the negotiating table, which appears a be total failure due to the two sides' unwillingness and deep gaps— and the international disagreement over a peaceful Syria solution. Second, Russian and Syrian anti-terror moves could be condemned in international organizations. The international backers of the terrorists could press Moscow and Damascus through both Security Council and sanctions. Security Council’s advantage is unusable due to presence of Russia. Recently, Russia and China vetoed an anti-Syrian resolution. The remaining tool is sanctions, on which the West can set hope. The US and EU imposed sanctions on Russia following Ukraine crisis. Imposing further sanctions on Moscow is not unlikely. But it appears not to be an option in the current conditions because Russia has upper hand now and the EU is in need of the Russian energy.
Conclusively it seems that, by capturing Aleppo, the regional and international actors tried to pursue a goal in the beginning of the Syrian crisis: Syria split. For them, split of Syria meant gaining shares in a broken Syria. Turkey and the US each eyed toehold in Aleppo. But liberation of Aleppo foiled their next plans. Aleppo, in fact, embodied the “small Syria” scenario of the West. It was set up as a base for anti-Damascus efforts after ousting President Assad's government met with failure, a failure that was a product of unity and cooperation in the Axis of Resistance, proving that resistance is the only choice in the face of the overbearing powers.
