Alwaght- The experts who are following the Turkish social and political developments for years have described the coup attempt by some army units against the Turkish government as highly strange and at the same time complicated move.
The coup was conducted in such an uncalculated way as if it came down from nothing, and actually was not based on an understanding of the political, social, and military realities of Turkey, but it came to the country all of a sudden. Even the most pessimistic analysts argue that such a classic form of coup was neither expected nor was it possible to succeed in the present-day Turkey.
How could the coup organizers fail to foresee the possible reactions by the pro-government people, the political institutions, or media centers in the country?
Only one reason could be given as a justification for such a move by the mutineers: it is the miscalculation, which consequently could produce utter folly.
The coup leaders are from the very body of the Turkish army, and so they are well aware of the recent decade's structural transformations in the army, and so were on the know that the current-day army of Turkey is no longer the former army that could attempt a coup and overthrow the ruling government while relying on its unified and consistent leadership.
The Turkish army so far conducted three military coups, in all three it managed to change the governments. Furthermore, it one time also put pressure on the Islamist government of President Necmettin Erbakan on February 28, 1997, forcing him resign from his post as prime minister of Turkey. The anti-Erbakan coup was identified as post-mortem or white coup in the history of Turkey.
The army turned out winner in all of the earlier coups because it had cohesive leadership structure. Since foundation of Republic of Turkey the army has been untouched by the politicians’ criticism and change attempts, as it was used to be recognized as guardian of the secular political system in Turkey.
But from almost a decade ago, Erdogan as part of plan for democratic control of the armed forces, which is one of conditions and needed reforms to join the EU, has cleansed the politics of the interventions of the army. Since 2007 and in fact after discovering the would-be Ergenekon coup plot, Erdogan started re-engineering the structure of the army's command, bringing to the trial tens of army generals who were accused of planning for Ergenekon and Balyoz coup plots, and at the end were dismissed from their jobs as army generals.
Following revelations on the government ministers’ corruption on December 17, 2013, Erdogan launched a clean-up campaign especially in the body of the police forces. He appointed as police chiefs his loyalists under the excuse of fighting the “parallel plotting hands.” the outcome of such move was the police forces’ siding with the pro-Erdogan people and so thwarting yesterday's coup bid by the army mutineers.
On the other hand, the Turkish society, just like other societies in transition process, has experienced considerable changes during the past decade, and the increased awareness as well as the degree of resistance of the people beside the massive and complicated communication technologies have made it highly difficult and even practically impossible for the army to attempt an anti-government coup in a classic form.
It is for this reason that yesterday coup’s leaders needed to know that their move at best would result in civil war and division among the armed forces in the country, and the chances for 100 percent success of the coup attempt and so being followed by the whole body of the army were almost zero. This is the difference that comes as part of reforms conducted by Erdogan’s government in the body of the Turkish armed forces during the past decade in a bid to minimize the possibility of success of military coup attempts by the army.
Anyway, the direct and indirect results of this failed coup attempt work, in practice, for the benefits of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, because the opposition groups and parties have gone under the umbrella of the elected Erdogan-led government as they immediately after spread of news of the coup drew lines between themselves and the army mutineers.
As a result of the failed coup, Erdogan now stands on the fault lines of political division in the country as an anti-coup and resistant hero. He now redefines his place in the country's politics. After the coup he would have time and opportunity to do some works including:
- Intensification of process to cleanse his opponents in the military structure and other power institutions.
- Erdogan would get a new chance to press and prosecute his critic the US-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen by labeling him as coup leader and terrorist.
- He now could shrug off the criticism and opposition.
- The Turkish president would have a stronger chance to press ahead with his presidential system project to further unify the power in the country.
- Erdogan now could gain more political backing from his supporters, and so could have more maneuvering power.
- Since the 2013 Gazi Park anti-government protests, Erdogan has not seen such a massive crowds gatherings across the Turkish cities in support of his government.
Historically, the Turkish people assume a great respect for the military and armed forces of the country, however, they see such army measures as coup attempt against the legitimate government and shooting at people and bombing some state buildings like the parliament as an unforgivable act and a stain on the honor of the army. An army that its natural task it to defend people and the country against foreign adversaries now has directed its tank gun towards people from whose taxes monthly salaries and the costs of buying or producing military equipment are paid.
Such a guilt is so large-scale in the eyes of Turkish public opinion that even the staunchest opponents of Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party have taken anti-mutineers stances and were brought towards unity with government and people to foil the coup attempt. Therefore, this incident in nature is seen as a desired breakthrough for President Erdogan. However, attempting the coup lays bare the deepening political gaps in Turkey, and their consequences are to show face in upcoming days and weeks.
